507
FOUS11 KWBC 110812
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 11 2026 - 12Z WED JAN 14 2026
..OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, & MID-ATLANTIC
DAY 1...
SNOW SQUALLS ARE CONTINUING TO RACE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY
THIS MORNING THAT WILL SOON TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL
MOST LIKELY ONLY RESULTING IN A DUSTING, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 1" ARE POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH, SNOW SQUALLS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS UPSTATE NY WHERE THE BASE OF A 500MB LOW AND
FALLING HEIGHTS WILL TAP INTO SOME GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO TRIGGER
ROUNDS OF SNOW SQUALLS. DESPITE THE MINOR AMOUNTS, RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS ON ALL SURFACES CAN OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES IN WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE RAPIDLY FALL. PLUS, BURSTS OF SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS WOULD LEAD TO DRAMATIC CHANGES FROM CLEAR VISIBILITY TO
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE SURE
TO MONITOR ANY SQUALLS AND BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ANY SNOW SQUALL
WARNINGS AS THEY TRAVERSE THESE REGIONS TODAY. SNOW SQUALLS SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY EVENING NORTHEAST PA AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE
NWRLY UPSLOPE FLOW GENERATES ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES IN THE LAUREL
AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN SUNDAY EVENING AND SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW MODERATE-TO-HIGH CHANCES
(50-80%) FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS >4" IN THE >2,000FT PEAKS OF EASTERN
WV, WHILE WESTERN MD AND THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 1-4" OF SNOWFALL. THE WSSI SHOWS MINOR IMPACT
POTENTIAL, SUGGESTING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN
AFFECTED AREAS.
..GREAT LAKES
DAYS 1 & 3...
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL KEEP SOME RESIDUAL LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE MICHIGAN U.P. AND MICHIGAN'S L.P.. AS SNOW TAPERS
OFF OVER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL UNFOLD
ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OF PA/NY AND DOWN WIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WPC
PROBABILITIES SHOW MODERATE CHANCES (40-60%) FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS
>4" ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE, WHILE SNOWFALL LINGERS LONGEST OVER
THE TUG HILL THANKS THEIR MORE FAVORABLE POSITION EAST OF A FAST
MOVING 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. WPC 48-HOUR PROBABILITIES (THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT) DEPICT THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH HIGH CHANCES (>70%)
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS >8" WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY RECEIVING OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW ON MONDAY, FOCUS TURNS TO TUESDAY AS
AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA DIVES SOUTH
TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A
DEEPENING CLIPPER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ACCOMPANY AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT RACES SOUTH OVER THE MICHIGAN U.P. TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CAA LOOKS TO REINVIGORATE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE OVER
NORTHERN WI, THE MICHIGAN U.P., AND THE TIP OF MICHIGAN'S MITT.
LATEST WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW LOW-TO-MODERATE CHANCES (30-50%) FOR
SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER 4" IN THE PORCUPINE AND HURON MOUNTAINS OF THE
MICHIGAN U.P., WITH A BROADER FOOTPRINT OF MODERATE CHANCE
PROBABILITIES (40-70%) FOR SNOWFALL >2" FROM NORTHERN WI ON EAST
TO THE THE EASTERN MICHIGAN U.P.. THE WESTERN MICHIGAN U.P. DOES
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS, DEPICTED BY
LOW-CHANCE PROBABILITIES (10-30%) IN THE PORCUPINE AND HURON
MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE WSSI-P DOES SHOW
LOW-TO-MODERATE CHANCES (20-50%) FOR MINOR IMPACTS OVER THESE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
..NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DAY 1...
AS THE PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WEAKENS AND THE
COASTAL LOW FORMS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND THE WHITES THROUGH SUNDAY. RATES
WILL LESSEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL STORM (LOCATED NORTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT) WILL KEEP SNOW IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
TAPERS OFF BY MONDAY MORNING, LEAVING A SWATH OF 6-12" OF SNOWFALL
OVER NORTHERN MAINE. FARTHER SOUTH, ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AND
JUST NORTH OF THE MAINE COAST. THE WSSI DEPICTS MINOR IMPACTS OVER
NORTHERN MAINE, HIGHLIGHTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. A PAIR OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE ADIRONDACKS, GREENS, WHITES, AND
NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS
GENERALLY A COATING-2" FOR THESE MOUNTAIN RANGES AND NORTHERN MAINE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4"
POSSIBLE IN THE PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
MULLINAX
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