483
FXUS02 KWBC 111949
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026
VALID 12Z WED JAN 14 2026 - 12Z SUN JAN 18 2026
...COASTAL LOWS AND UPPER LOW/TROUGH SUPPORT EXPECTED TO BRING A
WINTRY MIX WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS,
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH RIDGING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND BROAD TROUGHING
DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THERE CONTINUES TO ALSO BE MORE OF
A QPF SIGNAL WITH LOWS EXPECTED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND, SO AGAIN TRENDED UPWARD FROM CONTINUITY;
TRACK AND DEPTH ALOFT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE OF THE 00/06/12 UTC GFS/ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST DAY. HOWEVER, THE 00/12 UTC CANADIAN
CONTINUES TO OFFER LESS ROBUST OUTLIER SOLUTIONS THAT AT A MINIMUM
SHOW REMAINING GUIDANCE SENSITIVITY TO NAVIGATE AND MONITOR OVER
THE NEXT FEW RUN CYCLES.
WPC'S MEDIUM RANGE 500MB AND PRESSURES/FRONTS PROGS WERE CREATED
FROM BEST CLUSTERED GUIDANCE OF THE 06 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN ALONG
WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND 00 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS
COMPOSITE. THIS OVERALL PLAN SEEMS TO PROVIDE A GOOD FORECAST
STARTING POINT AND APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH THE 13 UTC NBM AND
LATEST TRENDS FROM MOST 12 UTC GUIDANCE DESPITE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTIES WITH SMALLER SCALE EMBEDDED SYSTEM VARIANCES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
IT GENERALLY REMAINS THE CASE THAT SHORTWAVES ALOFT/CLIPPER
SYSTEMS MOVING WITHIN AND THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SKIRMISHES OF LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST. THE
GUIDANCE IS GETTING MORE AGREEABLE ON THE SURFACE DEPTH OF A MID-
ATLANTIC CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY, BUT
QPF SPREAD IS LARGE AND EXACT TRACK/DEPTH REMAINS VARIABLE. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY
WHICH TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND NEW ENGLAND, THOUGH THE DEGREE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY
BE DEPENDENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LOW, BUT THE
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE. THIS FLOW IS ONE OF LESS
FORECAST CERTAINTY AS IT IS COMPLEX WITH A COLD LOW TO ITS NORTH
AND A KICKER SHORTWAVE NOT THAT FAR OFF TO ITS WEST- NORTHWEST.
FLORIDA EARLY AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATE SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE INTRUSION FROM THE GULF FOR RAIN.
TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AS AN UPPER-RIDGE BUILDS AND REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE WEST, POSSIBLY MODERATING FROM THE NORTH WITH FRONTAL
PUSH LATE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO SOME INDICATION FOR
ENHANCED WIND POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND VICINITY TO
MONITOR GIVEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS. THE UPPER TROUGHING OVERHEAD
KEEPS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST BELOW AVERAGE, ALTHOUGH
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
ROTH/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page