254
FXUS02 KWBC 121932
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
VALID 12Z THU JAN 15 2026 - 12Z MON JAN 19 2026
... A COMPLEX/BROAD COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WINTRY MIX
FOLLOWED BY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY/FRIDAY...
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
IN GENERAL, THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING
WILL NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A BROAD, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MULTIPLE ENERGIES TRAVERSING THE FLOW. DETAIL CHALLENGES
PERSIST INITIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST OUT THE INTERACTION/ SPACING
BETWEEN A COLD LOW IN QUEBEC AND A SHORTWAVE/POSSIBLE UPPER LOW
MOVING OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE SYSTEM'S KICKER SHORTWAVE
MOVING TOWARDS MINNESOTA HOWEVER IS BEING HANDLED WELL AND THE REST
OF THE EVOLUTION.
WPC'S MEDIUM RANGE 500 HPA HEIGHTS/PRESSURES/FRONTS PROGS WERE
CREATED FROM A COMPROMISE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EARLY,
WHICH THEN SAW SOME INCORPORATION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, NAEFS
AND GEFS MEANS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ALOFT/CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVE WITHIN AND THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND EAST. SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INITIALLY WINTRY MIX WHICH
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND
NEW ENGLAND, THOUGH THE DEGREE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LOW. THE FLOW
PATTERN IN WHICH THE NORTHEAST SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IS ONE OF GREATER
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY SINCE IT IS AN UNUSUAL CASE OF TRINARY
INTERACTION, AND ANY SMALL CHANGE IN ANY OF THE TWO STEERING
SYSTEMS (COLD LOW IN QUEBEC AND KICKER SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA) COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE COASTAL LOW
TRACK/STRENGTH. PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST LATE SHOULD SEE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTRUSION FOR RAIN.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND FOR THE
EASTERN STATES. MUCH OF THE WEST AND HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, IS ALSO SOME INDICATION FOR ENHANCED WIND POTENTIAL
FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND VICINITY TO MONITOR GIVEN PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW.
CAMPBELL/ROTH
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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