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FXUS06 KWBC 122002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 12 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 18 - 22 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS,
WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL MORE HEAVILY DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY
CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND INDICATES A PERSISTENT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND
ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE NORTH PACIFIC, AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). DOWNSTREAM, MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC FAVORS BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
OVER MUCH OF HAWAII DURING THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD.
ACROSS THE CONUS, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
CONVERSELY, PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST, WITH ANTECEDENT WARMER TEMPERATURES TIMING OFF FOLLOWING A
FRONTAL PASSAGE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS UNDERNEATH RIDGING.
RESIDUAL TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD TILTS THE ODDS TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF ALASKA. THE CONSOLIDATION REFORECAST
SUPPORTS A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS COMPARED TO LATE DECEMBER.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS,
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND MAINE,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, WITH A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE MAINLAND, WHERE MODEL FORECASTS
ARE IN AGREEMENT. IN HAWAII, TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO STRONGLY
FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 20 - 26 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE
6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. RIDGING
INITIALLY OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. DOWNSTREAM, TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED
TO FALL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS DRIVEN BY
PATTERNS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND CONTINUES TO DEPICT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND WEAK ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER ALASKA.
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN FORECAST OVER HAWAII UNDERNEATH TROUGHING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CONUS, GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF RELATIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS LONGER
INTO WEEK-2. THE STRONGEST CHANCES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER
PARTS OF FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER A
PREDICTED TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS DURING WEEK-2. RIDGING OVER
THE BERING SEA AND EASTERN RUSSIA FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND A POTENTIAL RETURN TO A COLDER PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA
LATER IN THE PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS, WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ODDS
INCREASED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA
UNDERNEATH MORE INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE ACROSS HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS FOR SOME AREAS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070103 - 20120126 - 19930123 - 19910112 - 20071223
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070105 - 20120125 - 19890123 - 19890118 - 20071222
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 18 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 20 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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