472
FXUS02 KWBC 130653
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
153 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
VALID 12Z FRI JAN 16 2026 - 12Z TUE JAN 20 2026
..WINDY IN THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
ONLY IN THE GROSSEST SENSE DID THE 11/12Z-18Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RIDGING WILL NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A BROAD DOWNSTREAM
AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH A SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION
EXPECTED; THE GUIDANCE SITUATION IMPROVED AT 00Z. WPC'S MEDIUM
RANGE 500 HPA HEIGHTS/PRESSURES/FRONTS PROGS WERE CREATED FROM A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE EARLY, WHICH THEN SAW
SOME INCORPORATION OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z NAEFS
MEAN. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY ACCOUNT FOR THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THIS REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE
CONTINENT AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE ROCKIES, SO NO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK AREAS WERE NECESSARY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN A FIXTURE NEAR AND
DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT/CLIPPER
SYSTEMS MOVE WITHIN AND THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE
PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND EAST. SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST. PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND GULF COAST LATE SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
INTRUSION FOR RAIN, AT TIMES.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER 48. MUCH OF THE WEST AND HIGH PLAINS
WILL HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY, IS ALSO SOME INDICATION FOR ENHANCED WIND POTENTIAL
FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND VICINITY TO MONITOR GIVEN PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW.
ROTH
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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