920
FXUS02 KWBC 131951
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
VALID 12Z FRI JAN 16 2026 - 12Z TUE JAN 20 2026
..WINDY IN THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST 00/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY AGREEABLE ON
THE BROADER PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, WITH AMPLIFIED
UPPER-TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER-
RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST THAT LOOKS TO DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME. NOT
SURPRISINGLY THE GREATEST DIFFERENCES ARE RELATED TO EMBEDDED
SHORT-WAVE TIMING WITHIN THE UPPER-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT AT THE SURFACE. AT LEAST FOR THIS CYCLE, THE ECMWF AND
CMC WERE MORE CLOSELY CLUSTERED IN THE PHASING OF THESE SYSTEMS AND
BACKED UP BY THE MEAN GUIDANCE COMPARED TO THE GFS DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD, SO THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST
USED A BLEND THAT SHIFTED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/CMC AND ECENS/CMC
ENSEMBLE MEANS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
GREATER DIFFERENCES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THE
OVERALL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN, AND SPECIFICALLY AS A
POTENTIAL UPPER-TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC HELPS
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MEANS PROVIDE A
SUPPORTIVE COMPROMISE SOLUTION AND ARE RAMPED UP TO 50% OF THE
BLEND BY THIS TIME. A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN ALREADY LIMITED THE NEED
FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM QPF BASED ON OTHER GUIDANCE, BUT THE
UPDATED WPC QPF DOES INCREASE AMOUNTS USING A MULTI-MODEL BLEND
OVER THE NBM FOR FAVORABLE LAKE-EFFECT ZONES AND ALONG UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM A COMBINATION OF CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS AND THEN LINGERING POST FRONTAL FLOW.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THIS REMAINS A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE
CONTINENT AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS FROM THE ROCKIES, SO NO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK AREAS WERE NECESSARY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN A FIXTURE NEAR AND DOWNWIND
OF THE GREAT LAKES AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT/CLIPPER SYSTEMS
MOVE WITHIN AND THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS, GREAT
LAKES, AND EAST. SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND GULF COAST LATE SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
INTRUSION FOR RAIN, AT TIMES.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER 48. MUCH OF THE WEST AND HIGH PLAINS
WILL HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, IS ALSO SOME INDICATION FOR ENHANCED WIND
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND VICINITY TO MONITOR GIVEN
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND OFFSHORE FLOW.
PUTNAM/ROTH
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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