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FXUS06 KWBC 132058
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 13 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 23 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE WITH AN AXIS FROM THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA IS EVEN STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAY, WITH MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING ABOVE +33 DM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA MAINLAND. MEANWHILE, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S DEPICTION, ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
(NEAR -12 DM) ARE A BIT FARTHER NORTH, ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND THE
GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING HOW MUCH
500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD. THE GEFS MEAN SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH 500-HPA ANOMALIES GOING
FROM THE -12 TO -18 DM RANGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC ON DAY 6 TO
ABOVE +6 DM ON DAY 9. THE ECENS MEAN ISN'T QUITE SO PRONOUNCED WITH THIS
EVOLUTION, KEEPING HEIGHT ANOMALIES PEAKING NEAR +5 DM AND LIMITING NOTABLE
POSITIVE ANOMALIES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FARTHER WEST, A FAIRLY
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH THE GEFS
MEAN SHOWING LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS.
TELECONNECTIONS AND ANALOGS TEND TO FAVOR A STRONG, VERY POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NEAR CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, WHICH BETTER RESEMBLES THE ECENS MEAN SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
(CMCE) MEAN FORECASTS A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
ALASKA WHICH HAS DOWNSTREAM IMPLICATIONS OVER THE REST OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS
CONTRADICTS ALMOST ALL OTHER GUIDANCE AND IS NOT THE FAVORED SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME. CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR, SUBNORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED NORTH OF HAWAII, RESULTING IN A KONA LOW PERIODICALLY AFFECTING THE
ISLAND CHAIN. THIS FEATURE TELECONNECTS WELL WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
FARTHER NORTH IN THE PACIFIC.
ACROSS THE CONUS, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHOULD RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE
ENSEMBLE REFORECASTS AND THE CONSOLIDATION PUSH INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT THE RAW AND BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL OUTPUT IS COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ANALOGS, TELECONNECTIONS, AND THE EVOLVING 500-HPA
PATTERN, AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK. FARTHER EAST, THE ECENS AND
CMCE REFORECASTS SHOW MEAN TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHEAST, CONFINING SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES REGION, AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE GEFS REFORECAST BETTER
RESEMBLES THE RAW ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE DYNAMICAL EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF),
KEEPING COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE
TOOLS PREDOMINANTLY FAVORING SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST, THIS IS
DEPICTED IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK. ODDS FOR SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 40
PERCENT AS FAR SOUTH AS GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THE BEST ODDS FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (OVER 70 PERCENT) ARE CLOSER TO THE 500-HPA NEGATIVE
ANOMALY CENTER, AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY.
MEANWHILE, THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEEDS 60 PERCENT OVER
A BROAD SECTION OF THE INTERIOR WEST, INCLUDING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.
WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE THERE, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THROUGH HAWAII,
WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE FOR THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANY A KONA LOW AND ITS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
AS IMPLIED BY RECENT 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS, TODAY'S 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS, INDICATIVE OF A SHARP INCREASE
IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CONUS.
TODAY, HEAVIER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS AT LEAST NOMINALLY FAVORED IN MOST
AREAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS. THE BEST
ODDS FOR ABNORMAL WETNESS (OVER 40 PERCENT) COVER TWO AREAS; ONE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT REGIONS, CONSISTENT WITH A
DIGGING 500-HPA TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM, AND ALSO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
ADJACENT MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE MOIST GULF INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM SEPARATING COLD AIR OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WARMER CONDITIONS ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAVORED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTLINE, AND IN NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON UPSTREAM FROM THE DIGGING 500-HPA TROUGH. DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA WHILE SURPLUS PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FARTHER NORTH, AND MOST OF HAWAII HAS A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WITH THE KONA LOW AFFECTING THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5) DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL PATTERN, TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY THE
MARKEDLY LESS-AMPLIFIED CMCE MEAN ALONG WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RAW
AND STATISTICALLY-ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS BASED ON THE
ENSEMBLES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 21 - 27 2026
THE 0Z ECENS AND GEFS MEANS MAINTAIN A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH AN
AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA. THE
MAXIMUM HEIGHT ANOMALIES WITH THIS FEATURE DECLINE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
IN THE TWO ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT THIS MAY BE MORE INDICATIVE OF GREATER ENSEMBLE
MEMBER SPREAD THAN A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN, SINCE THE DYNAMICAL ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLY MORE AMPLITUDE. THE CMCE MEAN REMAINS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN OTHER GUIDANCE, EVENTUALLY SHOWING 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER
ALASKA DROPPING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS REMAINS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION AND IS ESSENTIALLY DISCOUNTED. THE GEFS MEAN MAINTAINS MORE
AMPLIFICATION THAN THE ECENS MEAN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHICH RESULTS
IN A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CONUS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS MOSTLY A COMPROMISE OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECENS MEAN DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TELECONNECTIONS AND ANALOGS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, SUBNORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS AND A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS UNTIL ABOUT DAY 10, WHEN HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN AND THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TRACKING EASTWARD. AS THIS HAPPENS, POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE MAINTAINED FOR A TIME FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC REGION BEFORE EITHER BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC (PER THE GEFS MEAN) OR BEING SUPPRESSED TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS (PER THE ECENS MEAN). THE TOOLS DON'T SIGNIFICANTLY FAVOR ONE
EVOLUTION OVER THE OTHER, SO A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO IS LARGELY THE BASIS OF
THE WEEK-2 OUTLOOK. CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF HAWAII
STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, INDICATIVE OF A
PERSISTENT KONA LOW.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CONUS, BUT GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT IN THE EASTERN CONUS REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH BELOW-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE GEFS AND ECENS
REFORECASTS AND THE CONSOLIDATION FAVOR WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS REACHING
NORTHWARD TO THE OHIO RIVER AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WHILE RAW AND
BIAS-CORRECTED ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO
THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
A COMPROMISE, BUT ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPRESSED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH THAN IN THE AUTOBLEND. FARTHER WEST, SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPAND
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN CONUS,
CONSISTENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION, WHILE
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE SOUTHWEST, AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF ALASKA
OUTSIDE THE PANHANDLE, WHILE FARTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE NEAR OR NOMINALLY ABOVE-NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII, AS THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS SUPPRESSED BY ABNORMALLY
CLOUDY WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A KONA LOW.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AT LEAST MARGINALLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS. THE BEST ODDS COVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ADJACENT MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WHERE A WAVERING BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE GULF. THE CHANCES FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
EXCEED 60 PERCENT IN WESTERN TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT AREAS. MEANWHILE, ODDS FOR
WETNESS EXCEED 40 PERCENT FROM THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL TIER OF THE
ROCKIES. SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH SURPLUS PRECIPITATION FAVORED IN THE NORTHERN MAINLAND WHILE DRIER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER. ACROSS HAWAII, THE KONA
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION STATEWIDE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 12% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 13%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN EARLY WEEK-2, TEMPERED
BY INCREASING UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE PERIOD, AND DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE
VARIOUS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 21 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO B A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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