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FXUS05 KWBC 151331
PMD90D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
THE CURRENT PHASE OF THE EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) IS LA NINA. A
TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IS LIKELY DURING EARLY 2026, WITH
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
LATE SPRING. DESPITE THE FORECAST TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL, WE EXPECT LA NINA
IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL (FMA) 2026, WHICH INFLUENCES
THESE OUTLOOKS.
THE FMA 2026 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
OVER CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHEAST, EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. OVER
ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEST, NORTHWEST, AND
NORTH, TRANSITIONING TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN THE FMA 2026 OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES,
OHIO VALLEY, AND THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. OVER
ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
MAINLAND, WITH A WEAK TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE U.S., EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE-, NEAR-, AND BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION (EC) IS FORECAST WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR EACH
CATEGORY OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
BELOW-AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE PERSISTED IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SINCE SEPTEMBER 2025. DURING THE
LAST WEEK, SST DEPARTURES IN THE NINO3.4 REGION WERE APPROXIMATELY 0.8 DEGREES
CELSIUS BELOW-AVERAGE. HOWEVER, UPPER-OCEAN TEMPERATURES (0â300 METERS) HAVE
BECOME INCREASINGLY POSITIVE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE
MID-DECEMBER 2025. BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC, WHILE ABOVE-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE STRENGTHENED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND EXPANDED INTO THE
EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE
CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA, WITH LOW-LEVEL ZONAL WIND ANOMALIES REMAINING MAINLY
EASTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, THOUGH SOME RECENT WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DESPITE THESE MORE RECENT CHANGES TO CONDITIONS IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRESENT, AND WE EXPECT SOME
INFLUENCE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FMA 2026 SEASON.
ELSEWHERE, SSTS ARE ABOVE-AVERAGE OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA, OREGON, AND
WASHINGTON, THE GULF, AND ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST, THOUGH NEGATIVE
ANOMALIES ARE PRESENT NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SSTS ARE MOSTLY NEUTRAL AROUND ALASKA,
WITH SEA ICE PRIMARILY ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND THE WEST COAST.
OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS), SNOW COVER IS PRESENT IN
HIGH-ELEVATION REGIONS OF THE WEST, AS WELL AS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, THE GREAT
LAKES, AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND; HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR SOME
OF THESE AREAS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOCAL INTERACTIONS WITH SSTS AND SNOW
COVER ARE FACTORED INTO EARLY-LEAD FORECASTS WHERE RELEVANT.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) FORECASTS INDICATE A POSSIBLE
TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL DURING EARLY 2026. IN JANUARY INITIALIZED FORECASTS
FROM THE NMME, THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE NINO3.4
REGION APPROXIMATELY 0.5 DEGREES CELSIUS COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR FEBRUARY, WITH
THIS DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL WEAKENING TO NEAR ZERO BY APRIL. HOWEVER, THERE IS
SOME SPREAD IN FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT SEASON, FOR EXAMPLE, CONSOLIDATED SST
FORECASTS FOR THE FMA PERIOD RANGE FROM SSTS IN THE NINO3.4 REGION BETWEEN 0.5
AND 1.0 DEGREE CELSIUS COLDER THAN AVERAGE (IN THE MARKOV MODEL) TO NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (IN THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL VERSION 2, CFSV2).
ACCORDING TO THE ENSO TEAM, THERE IS A 75% CHANCE OF A TRANSITION TO
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH (JFM) 2026. ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LATE
SPRING BEFORE POTENTIALLY SHIFTING TOWARD EL NINO IN THE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL
OF 2026. WHILE THE CHANCE OF EL NINO IS HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE OF ENSO-NEUTRAL
OR LA NINA FOR THOSE SEASONS, MODEL PREDICTIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO LOWER
FORECAST ACCURACY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE SPRING MONTHS AND INTO SUMMER.
SOME LINGERING LA NINA INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED FOR FMA 2026, BUT THE POTENTIAL
INFLUENCE OF EL NINO LATER IN THE YEAR IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO DETERMINE AT THIS
TIME.
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME, THE CFSV2, AND THE COPERNICUS (C3S)
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM IS USED EXTENSIVELY FOR THE FIRST SIX LEADS WHEN
THEY ARE AVAILABLE, AS IS THE OBJECTIVE, HISTORICAL SKILL WEIGHTED
CONSOLIDATION AND CALIBRATION, BRIDGING, AND MERGING (CBAM) GUIDANCE, THAT
COMBINES BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL FORECAST INFORMATION. A CONSOLIDATION
OF STATISTICAL TOOLS INCLUDING THE ENSO-OCN TOOL, WHICH REPRESENTS THE COMBINED
INFLUENCE OF ENSO (WHEN ACTIVE) AND DECADAL TIMESCALE TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION (UTILIZING THE OPTIMUM CLIMATE NORMAL, OCN) AND DYNAMICAL MODELS
IS USED FOR THE FIRST SIX LEADS. WHEN APPROPRIATE, I.E. DURING EARLY LEADS,
CANONICAL IMPACTS OF LA NINA BASED ON COMPOSITE AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS FROM
HISTORICAL LA NINA EVENTS ARE CONSIDERED. LOCAL SST ANOMALIES, SEA ICE, AND
SNOW COVER ARE ALSO CONSIDERED FOR EARLY LEADS. FOLLOWING LEAD 6, THE ENSO-OCN
FORECAST TOOL IS USED MORE EXTENSIVELY. DECADAL VARIABILITY AND TRENDS ARE
DETERMINED FROM THE OCN, REPRESENTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT
15-YEAR PERIOD AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION AND THE AVERAGE
FOR THE CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD, FROM 1991-2020.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - FMA 2026 TO FMA 2027
TEMPERATURE
THE FMA 2026 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK REFLECTS A PATTERN SIMILAR TO TYPICAL LA NINA
IMPACTS, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVER ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKLY FAVORED (33% TO 40% PROBABILITY) FOR THE PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST (50% TO 60% CHANCES) OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CONUS, WHERE TOOLS SHOWED THE BEST AGREEMENT. ALTHOUGH WE
EXPECT SOME CONTINUATION OF LA NINA IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING SEASON,
FORECASTS OF LA NINA WEAKEN AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES. THIS LEADS TO LOWER
PROBABILITIES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND EC
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, DESPITE THESE BEING REGIONS THAT ARE CANONICALLY
IMPACTED BY LA NINA DURING THE FMA SEASON. C3S ALSO POINTS TO THE BELOW-NORMAL
PROBABILITIES PEAKING IN MARCH OVER SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, BUT THIS IS INCONSISTENT WITH NMME WHICH TILTS MORE NEUTRAL, WHICH
FURTHER INCREASES UNCERTAINTY.
WHILE THIS MONTH'S FMA TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO LAST
MONTH'S, THERE ARE NOTABLE DIFFERENCES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
ARE COMPARATIVELY EXPANDED TO COVER MORE OF CALIFORNIA IN THIS MONTH'S FMA
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, GIVEN NMME AND CONSOLIDATED MODEL FORECASTS THAT FAVOR
MORE EXPANSIVE WARMING ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME TOOLS SUGGESTED THAT
ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES EXTEND INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON, WE
MAINTAIN EC FOR THOSE STATES AS LA NINA TYPICALLY FAVORS COOLER TEMPERATURES
THERE. ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO EXPANDED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE TO A WARMER SHIFT IN DYNAMICAL MODELS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER, BECAUSE COLD AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING A LA NINA SPRING, WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD EC DESPITE SOME OF THE
WARMER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO SHIFTED TO EC THIS MONTH COMPARED
TO THE ABOVE-NORMAL FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS FMA TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. WHILE
DECADAL TRENDS TILT ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST, FACTORS SUCH AS COLD SSTS
OFF NEW ENGLAND, CURRENT SNOW COVER, AND INCONSISTENT MODEL FORECASTS BETWEEN
THE NMME AND C3S LED TO THIS CHANGE. THE ALASKA FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH LAST MONTH, SUPPORTED BY DECADAL TRENDS AND LA NINA IMPACTS.
AS WE TRANSITION INTO MAM 2026, LA NINA IMPACTS BECOME LESS COHERENT DUE TO THE
FORECAST SHIFT TOWARD ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS AND UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL
PREDICTIONS THROUGH SPRING. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND EAST COAST THROUGH
JUNE-JULY-AUGUST (JJA) 2026, WHICH IS BASED ON NMME, C3S, AND A CONSOLIDATION
OF STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL TOOLS. THESE ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CONUS IN SUMMER AND EARLY WINTER 2026 BEFORE RETREATING
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST COAST BY FMA 2027. THESE LATER LEADS ARE
PRIMARILY BASED ON DECADAL TRENDS. OVER ALASKA, THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA TRANSITION TO EC IN MAM
2026. MOST OF THE STATE IS FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM
APRIL-MAY-JUNE (AMJ) 2026 THROUGH ROUGHLY SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER (SON)
2026, CONSISTENT WITH DECADAL TRENDS.
PRECIPITATION
THE FMA 2026 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ACROSS THE CONUS,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE GREAT LAKES, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN
TIER, INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS OUTLOOK GENERALLY RESEMBLES A
TYPICAL LA NINA PATTERN, AND TOOLS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST REGIONS.
COMPARED TO LAST MONTH'S OUTLOOK, NMME AND THE FINAL CONSOLIDATION OF
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A SHIFT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR SOME OF CALIFORNIA PREVIOUSLY LABELED AS EC. CONVERSELY,
INCONSISTENCY AMONG TOOLS FOR THE NORTHWEST COAST LED TO A CHANGE TO A FORECAST
OF EC COMPARED TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED IN LAST MONTH'S OUTLOOK.
WEAKLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION (33% TO 40% CHANCE)
ARE INTRODUCED FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE THE
NMME FAVORED WEAK ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. MOST TOOLS, INCLUDING NMME, C3S,
AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, SUPPORT A WESTWARD AND EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
COMPARED TO LAST MONTH'S OUTLOOK.
LA NINA IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE APPROACHING THE MAM 2026 SEASON. REMAINING
LEADS ARE BASED ON DYNAMICAL MODELS AND DECADAL TRENDS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH MAY-JUNE-JULY
(MJJ) 2026. EC IS INDICATED FOR ALL OF ALASKA FROM SUMMER THROUGH EARLY FALL
2026, AFTER WHICH ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE
STATE, CONSISTENT WITH DECADAL TRENDS. OVER THE CONUS, ENHANCED BELOW-NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER IN FMA 2026 SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN MAM
2026 AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST IN AMJ THROUGH JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER (JAS) 2026.
ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE MAINTAINED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST COAST FROM AMJ
2026 THROUGH JAS 2026. THESE SIGNALS ARE SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODELS AND
DECADAL TRENDS. ANY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES IN THE FINAL LEADS ARE RELATED TO
WHERE DECADAL TREND SIGNALS EMERGE FROM STATISTICAL TOOLS.
FORECASTER: JOHNNA INFANTI
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON FEB 19 2026
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021
FORECAST RELEASE.
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