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FXUS07 KWBC 151331
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB 2026
THE FEBRUARY 2026 OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF A LA NIñA
ADVISORY AND THE POTENTIAL EMERGENCE OF AN ENHANCED MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION
(MJO) SIGNAL. LA NIñA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT BUT ARE LIKELY (75 PERCENT
CHANCE) TO TRANSITION TO THE EL NIñO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) NEUTRAL PHASE
DURING THE CURRENT JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH (JFM) SEASON. THE LATEST WEEKLY NIñO
3.4 INDEX WAS AT -0.8 DEGREES CELSIUS, WHICH IS STILL IN LA NIñA TERRITORY.
HOWEVER, AT DEPTH, A POOL OF WARMER THAN NORMAL WATER HAS BEEN STEADILY
EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC, CONSISTENT WITH A POTENTIAL
TRANSITION TO ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
REAL-TIME MULTIVARIATE MJO INDEX HAS BEEN INCREASING IN RECENT DAYS IN THE
WESTERN PACIFIC. BY THE START OF FEBRUARY, MOST OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR
MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS (ECMWF) ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PREDICT THIS EMERGING
MJO EVENT TO PROPAGATE TO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE/AFRICA OR THE INDIAN OCEAN.
RECENT ANALYSIS OF EXTRATROPICAL INDICES SHOW THAT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO)
AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) HAVE BEEN MOSTLY NEGATIVE IN EARLY
JANUARY (ALTHOUGH BOTH HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO ZERO IN THE PAST FEW DAYS). THE
PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA (PNA) INDEX HAS TRANSITIONED FROM THE NEGATIVE TO THE
POSITIVE PHASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY. COMBINED NATURAL ANALOG
COMPOSITES DERIVED FROM THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF THESE TROPICAL (ENSO AND MJO)
AND EXTRATROPICAL (AO, NAO, AND PNA) DRIVERS DEPICT A 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN
DOMINATED BY ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, OFF THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING IS FAVORED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WEAKLY
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS COMBINED
NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITE IS REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO TRENDS DURING THE LAST 15
YEARS, WHICH ALSO FAVOR INCREASED RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND
THE SOUTHEAST, AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. NATURAL ANALOG COMPOSITES, TRENDS, AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
FROM THE COPERNICUS CLIMATE CHANGE SERVICE (C3S), NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE (NMME), THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2 (CFSV2), AND THE
FORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL (CON) (WHICH INCLUDES BOTH DYNAMICAL MODEL INPUT
AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE) FORM THE BASIS OF THE FEBRUARY OUTLOOKS. THE LATEST
CPC WEEKS 3-4 OUTLOOKS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF, GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS), AND THE CFSV2 ALSO CONTRIBUTED. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS SUCH AS EXTRATROPICAL SSTS, SEA ICE EXTENT, AND SNOW COVER ANOMALIES
WERE ALSO CONSIDERED WHERE APPROPRIATE.
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS COLD AIR
OUTBREAKS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING FEBRUARY. HOWEVER,
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH WARMER, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS DICHOTOMY BETWEEN THE COLDER STATISTICAL AND
WARMER DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE RESULTS IN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FEBRUARY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRONG AGREEMENT BETWEEN
RECENT TRENDS, ENSO, MJO, AND EXTRATROPICAL ANALOGS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOMALOUS COLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THESE REGIONS. THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) IS INDICATED FOR THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHERE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST SIGNAL.
CONVERSELY, STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECOND, BUT WEAKER, AREA OF ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DUE PRIMARILY TO DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL SSTS OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS MAY ALSO ASSIST IN INCREASING CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT WEAK FOR THIS REGION AS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED WARMTH RELATIVE TO
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS WESTERN
ALASKA DUE TO VERY GOOD SUPPORT FROM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, DYNAMICAL
MODEL SUPPORT IS RELATIVELY WEAK, SO PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY MODESTLY INCREASED. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKLY
FAVORED FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH C3S MODEL OUTPUT WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM NATURAL
ANALOG COMPOSITES (ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA).
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT LA NIñA IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO ENSO NEUTRAL AT SOME
POINT DURING JFM 2026, STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
STILL GENERALLY REFLECT A LA NIñA SIGNATURE FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, AND PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) IS INDICATED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, WHERE BOTH STATISTICAL
AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A SECOND REGION WHERE ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IS THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
CONSISTENT WITH LA NIñA COMPOSITES AS WELL AS WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE,
ESPECIALLY THE C3S. TYPICAL OF LA NIñA, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE FORECAST FAVORING
DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER ACROSS THESE TWO REGIONS HAS GOOD DYNAMICAL MODEL
SUPPORT FROM THE NMME. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALL OF WESTERN
ALASKA. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING INCREASED
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALASKA WHILE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS AN EXTENSION OF THIS SIGNAL SOUTHWARD
TO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. CONVERSELY, A TILT OF PROBABILITIES TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND DUE PRIMARILY TO DYNAMICAL MODEL SUPPORT, ESPECIALLY FROM
THE C3S.
FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR FEB WILL BE ISSUED ON SAT JANUARY 31 2026
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD.
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