256
FXCA20 KWBC 151924
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 15 JANUARY 2026 AT 1925 UTC:
IN THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY, THE TROPICAL REGION IS SEEING
THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF A POTENT POLAR TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND EXTENDS INTO FLORIDA-UNITED STATES. THIS UPPER TROUGH
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SUSTAINED THE REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE BAHAMAS, CUBA, AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA,
THAT IS INTERACTING WITH THE TRADE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS, AND
A SHEAR LINE STRUCTURE HAS AFFECTED THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, CUBA AND
HONDURAS IN THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. LATER IN THE DAY, THE POTENT COLD FRONT IS MAKING
ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO BELIZE AND
CENTRAL GUATEMALA BY THURSDAY EVENING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE
BASE OF THE POLAR TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE BAHAMAS, CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, WITH DIVERGENCE SITUATED TO OVER THE BAHAMAS,
FAVORING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA, EXPECT INCREASED WIND FLOW DUE TO
THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION, FAVORING OROGRAPHIC
LIFT INTO THE ALTIPLANO CENTRAL REGION OF GUATEMALA, WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
FROM CHIAPAS INTO TABASCO/CAMPECHE, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. AS
WINDS ARE COMING FROM THE NORTH, ADVECTING MOISTURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COASTS OF HONDURAS, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE
REGION. ON FRIDAY, RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA, FAVORED BY A
WEAK JET OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH MAINTAINING THE POLAR TROUGH TO THE
NORTH, AND THUS IT WILL WEAKEN THE EFFECTS IN THE CARIBBEAN REGION
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEAKENING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA,
FAVORING A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
REGIONS. HOWEVER, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA,
FAVORING MOIST ONSHORE INTO THE CENTRAL REGIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM, WITH A POSSIBILITY
FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE REGION. REMNANTS OF THE
MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. A
PROPAGATING MOIST PLUME THAT WAS ENHANCED BY THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH
IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY, WHERE IT WILL
INTERACT WITH JAMAICA AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON FRIDAY. THIS
PLUME, PROPAGATING TO THE WEST OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET
(LLJ), WILL BEGIN TO ENTER INTO COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ON FRIDAY,
WITH MOIST LONG FETCH, FAVORING TOTALS OF 20-40MM IN NORTHEAST
COSTA RICA AND NORTH-CENTRAL PANAMA. ON SATURDAY, THE PROPAGATING
TROUGH CONTINUES WESTWARD, EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE BAHAMAS AND NORTH CARIBBEAN, WHILE
ENTERING EAST NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, ENHANCED BY THE
CARIBBEAN LLJ, JAMAICA AND EAST NICARAGUA/HONDURAS CAN EXPECT
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE CONDITIONS ALOFT THAT WILL
FAVOR THE PRECIPITATION INCLUDE THE PASSING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM HONDURAS/NICARAGUA INTO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA BY EARLY
SUNDAY. THE CAYMAN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM, WHILE
EAST HONDURAS THROUGH EAST NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA, THE PERIPHERY OF THE
BOLIVIAN HIGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AMAZON BASIN AND INTO SOUTH COLOMBIA. IT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH A JET STREAM THAT IS SITUATED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AMERICA, AND THEN
WITH A TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETROGRADING TUTT OVER
CENTRAL BRASIL. THE REGION WITH ENHANCED DIVERGENCE WILL MEANDER
BETWEEN THE WEST AMAZON BASIN ON THURSDAY AND INTO SOUTH COLOMBIA
BY SATURDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, ON THURSDAY, THE WEST
AMAZON BASIN AND INTO SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA, EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. ON FRIDAY, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN THE WESTERN AMAZON
BASIN. THE SAME REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ON SATURDAY.
THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY
DUE TO THE UPPER DIVERGENT CONDITIONS FROM THE MJO/ATMOSPHERIC
KELVIN WAVES PROPAGATING OVER THE REGION.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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