098
FXUS06 KWBC 152002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 15 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 21 - 25 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING AREAS FOR
THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. AN AMPLIFIED MEAN 500-HPA RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC NORTHWARD THROUGH ALASKA AND INTO POLAR REGIONS, WITH AN
AXIS CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ALASKAN
MAINLAND. THE GREATEST 500-HPA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES (OVER +33 DM) COVER
WESTERN ALASKA, STRETCHING SOMEWHAT FARTHER NORTH THAN IN YESTERDAY'S FORECAST.
DOWNSTREAM, A BROAD, MODERATELY-AMPLIFIED MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS PLACES THE AXIS FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST, CONSIDERABLY FARTHER WEST THAN
YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE, SUBNORMAL MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN CONUS
HAVE RETRACTED NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN REPRESENTS A
REASONABLE PROGRESSION FROM YESTERDAY'S 6-10 DAY FORECAST, BUT A LITTLE FASTER
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE STRONG, LONG-LIVED, AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH ALASKA MAY START TO WEAKEN BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXCEED
+30 DM OVER WESTERN ALASKA IN THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE (ECENS) AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE (CMCE) MEANS, WITH THE GEFS MEAN SLIGHTLY LOWER. LATER IN THE PERIOD,
THE GEFS MEAN EVENTUALLY BRINGS HEIGHT ANOMALIES DOWN TO BELOW +18DM OVER
WESTERN ALASKA. THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN MORE AMPLITUDE, KEEPING THE
GREATEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES NEAR OVER +30DM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THEY
BEGIN TO MOVE THE ANOMALY CENTER WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD SLOWLY, ENDING THE
PERIOD WITH A CUTOFF 500-HPA HIGH OF 547 TO 551 DM CENTERED OVER OR JUST NORTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT. THE GEFS MEAN DOES NOT INTRODUCE A CLOSE 500-HPA
CIRCULATION. THE FORECAST FAVORS THE EVOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE ECENS AND CMCE
MEANS, WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. DOWNSTREAM, THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN CENTRAL CANADA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS
DIGS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR WEST. THE TROUGH STRENGTH IS MAXIMIZED
THERE AROUND DAY 8, WHEN SUBNORMAL HEIGHTS COVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE WESTERN
CONUS. THE ECENS AND CMCE MEANS FEATURE A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION, AND GIVEN
UPSTREAM CONSIDERATIONS, THIS REMAINS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. LATE
IN THE PERIOD, HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RE-BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH RETRACTS NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD. TODAY'S SOLUTIONS END THE
PERIOD WITH MAXIMUM NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED A BIT WEST OF YESTERDAY,
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WITH LESSER NEGATIVE ANOMALIES EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. FARTHER EAST, HEIGHTS ARE
INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, WITH
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES REACHING NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
LOWER NORTHEAST NEAR DAY 8 BEFORE HEIGHTS AGAIN START LOWERING FROM THE NORTH.
BY DAY 10, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT
HEIGHTS DO NOT DROP AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY IN THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MAXIMUM
ANOMALY CENTERED FARTHER TO THE WEST.
ACROSS THE CONUS, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. ACROSS THE
WEST, THE ENSEMBLE REFORECASTS AND THE CONSOLIDATION PUSH INCREASED ODDS FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT THE RAW AND
BIAS-CORRECTED OUTPUT IS COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THIS REGION. THE
COOLER SOLUTION IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ANALOGS, TELECONNECTIONS, AND THE
EVOLVING 500-HPA PATTERN, AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK. FARTHER
EAST, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH ABOVE-NORMAL MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED. THE ECENS REFORECAST IS STRONGEST WITH THE PUSH
OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING MEAN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AS FAR
NORTH AS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS, LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. THE
CMCE REFORECAST IS SIMILAR BUT SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH, INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER, BIAS-CORRECTED AND RAW TEMPERATURE OUTPUT FROM THE
ENSEMBLES KEEPS ANOMALOUS WARMTH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH, RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, IMMEDIATE GULF COAST, AND FLORIDA. A COMPROMISE IS FAVORED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST, LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MORE
CONSISTENT WITH ANALOGS AND TELECONNECTIONS. COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED
FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH ODDS FOR SUBNORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT
MINNESOTA. WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS FAVORED ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINNING TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS HAWAII, TODAY'S
FORECAST MARGINALLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN ISLANDS AND
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE, CONSISTENT WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT KONA LOW NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN.
IN TODAY'S 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST, SURPLUS PRECIPITATION IS AT LEAST
NOMINALLY FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RAW AND
REFORECAST OUTPUT FROM THE ENSEMBLES, ESPECIALLY THE ECENS. PORTIONS OF BOTH
FLORIDA AND CALIFORNIA, PLUS SOME ADJACENT AREAS, ARE THE ONLY PARTS OF THE
CONUS WITHOUT ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SURPLUS PRECIPITATION. THE BEST ODDS FOR
ABNORMAL WETNESS EXCEED 50 PERCENT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS'
CONFLUENCE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WHERE MOIST GULF INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SEPARATING COLD AIR OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM WARMER CONDITIONS
FARTHER WEST. CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 40 PERCENT IN A
BROAD SWATH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND ALSO
IN A STRIPE THROUGH THE EASTERN TIER OF THE ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS. FARTHER NORTH, ECENS RAW AND REFORECAST PRECIPITATION OUTPUT PUSHED
ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH OF YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, INTO
LOWER PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND. MOST TOOLS RESTRICTED SUBNORMAL
PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER, A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY CONSISTENT WITH THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE EFFECTS OF
A PERSISTENT PATTERN FAVORING KONA LOW DEVELOPMENT STRONGLY INCREASES THE ODDS
FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS HAWAII. CHANCES EXCEED 70 PERCENT IN THE CENTRAL
ISLANDS, AND TOP 60 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5) DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL PATTERN AND DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
DERIVED TOOLS, TEMPERED BY THE LESS-AMPLIFIED GEFS, REGIONAL DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE RAW AND STATISTICALLY-ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS
DERIVED FROM THE ENSEMBLES, AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS ALASKA AND THE PACIFIC.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 29 2026
THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND FOR WEEK-2 IS PRIMARILY AN AVERAGE OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS, WITH MORE WEIGHT ALLOCATED TO THE ECENS MEAN WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ENTRENCHED, STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING DURING WEEK-2. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EVOLUTIONS OF THIS FEATURE - PARTICULARLY LATER WEEK-2 -
BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP MEAN POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ANOMALIES IN PLACE
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE AND TOWARD THE POLAR
REGIONS. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST ANOMALIES ARE LOWER THAN FORECAST YESTERDAY, AND
ARE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTHWARD. 500-HPA HEIGHTS DROP TOWARD NORMAL IN THE
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WHILE THE GREATEST ANOMALIES - ABOVE +24 DM IN THE ECENS
MEAN - IS SHIFTED NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHEASTERN SIBERIA NEAR A MEAN CLOSED
CIRCULATION TOPPING OUT ABOVE 546 DM OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE CMCE MEAN IS
SIMILAR BUT A BIT WEAKER, AND THE GEFS REMAINS THE WEAKEST OF THE ENSEMBLES,
BUT THEY ALL SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE. DOWNSTREAM, THE MODELS
SHOW MEAN BELOW-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN, HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS (CONFINING POSITIVE MEAN HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO THE
SOUTHEAST) AND REBOUND OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS (RESULTING IN A
WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST AND ANOMALOUSLY ELEVATED HEIGHTS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE ECENS MEAN IN THESE REGIONS SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MORE-AMPLIFIED CMCE MEAN AND THE FLATTER GEFS MEAN,
AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR, SUBNORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR STRENGTHEN NORTH OF HAWAII AS THE
PACIFIC RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE PATTERN ESTABLISHED AT THE START OF WEEK-2 ACROSS
THE CONUS MAY BE TRANSIENT, SHIFTING BACK TOWARD A PATTERN WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST. THE TRANSITIONAL REGIME
SHOULD PEAK AT THE START OF WEEK-2, WITH SUBNOMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS COVERING MOST
OF THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE BUILT INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. WITH TIME, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SHOW SIMILAR RELATIVE CHANGES.
THE CENTER OF STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES SHIFTS NORTHWEST OF ALASKA BY
THE END OF WEEK-2 WHILE HEIGHTS INCREASE DOWNSTREAM IN THE WESTERN CONUS,
LEAVING POSITIVE ANOMALIES FROM APPROXIMATELY CALIFORNIA EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FARTHER EAST, HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DROP AGAIN
AS BUILDING HEIGHTS IN THE WEST FORCE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. SUBNORMAL HEIGHTS SHOULD EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS,
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS. WARM
AIR APPEARS TO HAVE PUSHED INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY
WEEK-2, BUT REGRESSES SOUTHWARD WITH TIME AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. FOR WEEK-2 AS A WHOLE, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE DELINEATION BETWEEN MEAN SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, AND ANOMALOUS WARMTH FARTHER SOUTH. REFORECASTS AGAIN SHOW
WARMER THAN NORMAL MEAN CONDITIONS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH, BUT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FAVORS THE RAW AND BIAS-CORRECTED OUTPUT WHICH CONFINES AREAS OF
PREVAILING WARMTH TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, GULF COAST, AND FLORIDA. NORTH
OF THIS REGION, THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REFLECTING
THE EXPECTATION THAT TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD BUT GIVE WAY TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD LATER, WITH THE RELATIVE DOMINANCE OF ONE REGIME
OR THE OTHER HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER, WHERE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL
BE MORE CONSISTENTLY NEGATIVE ABOVE A LONG FETCH OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. FARTHER WEST, WHETHER OR NOT THE AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS DETERIORATING OR MOVING, IT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP MEAN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA, WITH
SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SOUTH OF COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. MEANWHILE, A 500-HPA CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER NORTH OF
HAWAII WITH THE MEAN POSITION POSSIBLY DRIFTING NORTH. THIS PATTERN IS
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF KONA LOWS, WHICH WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AND THUS KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE STATE.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AT LEAST MARGINALLY THROUGHOUT THE CONUS
DURING WEEK-2, EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER
BUILDING 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THE BEST ODDS COVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ADJACENT
AREAS, WHERE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE DYNAMICAL EUROPEAN MODEL (ECMWF) ALL SHOW A
RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITATION. THE CHANCES FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS EXCEED 50 PERCENT IN THIS REGION. MEANWHILE, ODDS FOR WETNESS EXCEED
40 PERCENT ACROSS A LARGE SWATH THROUGH THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS, THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND THE NORTHEAST. ODDS FOR WET WEATHER ALSO EXCEED 40
PERCENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH
RAW AND REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. SUBNORMAL PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAVORED
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2. THE PATTERN ACROSS ALASKA IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN TRANSITION WITH A STRONG RIDGE DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE
LOWER HEIGHTS ENCROACH FROM THE EAST. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MARGINALLY
FAVORED IN THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND WHILE ODDS TILT TOWARD SUBNORMAL
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
STATE. ACROSS HAWAII, THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR
KONA LOW DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, BUT A CLOSED 500-HPA LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION NORTH OF THE STATE MAY BEGIN MOVING AWAY TOWARD THE END OF
WEEK-2, WHICH WOULD START TO REDUCE THE INFLUENCE OF POTENTIAL KONA LOWS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 8% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 17% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE (3 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN AT THE
START OF WEEK-2, TEMPERED BY INCREASING UNCERTAINTY LATER IN THE PERIOD AND
DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: RICH TINKER
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150124 - 20030106 - 20220113 - 20020111 - 20210115
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20061230 - 20030104 - 20210114 - 20150121 - 20220112
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 21 - 25 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 29 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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