753
FXUS02 KWBC 161959
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
VALID 12Z MON JAN 19 2026 - 12Z FRI JAN 23 2026
...DEEP TROUGHING WILL CAUSE CHILLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
THE EAST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., WITH THE LATTER CAUSING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THAT COULD BECOME HEAVY. THE TROUGH MAY BROADEN WESTWARD MID-
AND LATE WEEK. GULF MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
TO MID-SOUTH WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY VICINITY BY FRIDAY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST 00/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH BROAD UPPER-
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL U.S. AND AN UPPER-RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THE DETAILS OF EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE ENERGIES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEMS NOT SURPRISINGLY GET A BIT MORE MURKY,
THOUGH WITH GOOD CLUSTERING AT LEAST FOR A PAIR OF SYSTEMS
DEPARTING THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AROUND ANOTHER
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM MID- WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF AS WELL AS ECMWF AIFS
GENERALLY TENDED TO BE BETTER CLUSTERED COMPARED TO THE CMC INTO
MID-WEEK, SO THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST FOCUSED ON A GFS/ECMWF/ECMWF
AIFS/CMC BLEND THAT SLOWLY TRENDED DOWN THE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE
CMC. THE ECENS MEAN WAS ADDED AS A REPLACEMENT GIVEN ITS SIMILARITY
TO THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO LARGER-SCALES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH DISAGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER-WAVE(S) TO IMPINGE ON
THE UPPER-RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND HOW AMPLIFIED THE UPPER-
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN TO CENTRAL U.S. THE 06Z GFS WAS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING AN UPPER-WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEST COAST AND TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF/CMC WERE SLOWER AND WEAKER AS THE ENERGY SPLITS WITH
A POTENTIAL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE MEANS
TENDED TO FAVOR THE PHASING OF THE ECMWF/CMC, AND THE 12Z GFS CAME
IN MORE SIMILAR TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE. FURTHER EAST, THE GFS HAS
BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN THE UPPER-TROUGH REMAINING MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S., OR RETREATING A
BIT NORTH AND ALLOWING WARMER AIR/MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF
HAS ALTERNATED A BIT AS WELL, BUT REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS NOT
SURPRISINGLY LAND SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, WITH THE LATEST GEFS
MEAN ACTUALLY MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF THAN THE ECENS, THOUGH THEY
BOTH MAINTAIN A SIMILARLY MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND HIGHER
PRESSURE FURTHER SOUTH, PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST. THE
AI GUIDANCE (AIGFS/ECMWF AIFS) WERE ALSO SIMILAR IN THIS FASHION,
WITH THE COMBO OF THE MEANS AND AI GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF ANY QPF
MORE FOCUSED OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE NBM QPF WAS A BIT
HIGHER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE, THOUGH MAINTAINED A SIMILAR FOOTPRINT,
WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER AND ECMWF DRIER. FOR THIS PART OF THE
PERIOD, THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST USED THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS (UP TO
65% OF THE BLEND), WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE GFS AND FAVORING THE
ECMWF AIFS OVER THE ECMWF.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
SEVERAL DAYS OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW ARE IN STORE
WITH THE MEAN WESTERLY WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LOWER 48. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS GENERALLY LIKELY
MONDAY-TUESDAY, THOUGH WITH MORE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD EVENTUALLY PILE UP TO 1-2 FEET IN
WESTERN NEW YORK DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. ADDITIONALLY, A CLIPPER
SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.
DRY WEATHER PERSISTS ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY, BUT BY TUESDAY GULF
MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS IN PARTICULAR AND POOL
ALONG A FRONT. THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD WITH WHEN ANY NOTABLE
RAIN MAY FORM, SO THERE REMAINS NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA THERE
FOR DAY 5/TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MUCH GREATER SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL (AMOUNTS LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2-4") INTO WEDNESDAY
FOCUSED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST, THOUGH WITH LESS CERTAINTY ON
POTENTIAL IMPACTS GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL AND DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. SOME RAIN COULD SPREAD EAST OR NORTHEAST
INTO THURSDAY, ACROSS THE MID- SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. THEN, INTO
FRIDAY, A FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COULD BRING WINTER-WEATHER
CONCERNS (SNOW AND/OR ICE), THOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON BOTH
AMOUNTS AND WHERE THE TRANSITION ZONE TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WOULD SET UP. ADDITIONALLY, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST COULD SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE UNCERTAIN PATTERN ALOFT.
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
MONDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVES AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND POSSIBLY EVEN STAYING BELOW 0 IN SOME LOCATIONS, WHICH IS 15 TO
25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD MEET HAZARDOUS THRESHOLDS FOR COLD WEATHER.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MARCH EAST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO OHIO VALLEY AND THEN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR
THE NORTHERN TIER INTO LATE WEEK, BUT THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TIER
MAY MODERATE AS WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEST
SPREAD EASTWARD.
PUTNAM/TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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