487
FXUS06 KWBC 162002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 16 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 26 2026
TODAY'S 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND CONSISTS OF A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE INPUT MODELS, WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER
WEIGHT PLACED ON THE ECENS DUE TO ITS EDGE IN ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES OVER
THE PAST 60 DAYS. AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES IS DEPICTED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, ALASKA, BERING SEA, NORTHERN
CANADA, AND MOST OF THE NORTH POLAR REGION. THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS IS PREDICTED
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE COAST OF THE WESTERN
MAINLAND. MAXIMUM HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +300 METERS ARE CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BERING STRAIT AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. DOWNSTREAM, A BROAD
CYCLONIC VORTEX IS FORECAST FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTHWARD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). CYCLONIC
CURVATURE CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST, THOUGH HERE THE HEIGHT
DEPARTURES HAVE CHANGED SIGN AND AVERAGE AT LEAST 30 METERS ABOVE AVERAGE. THE
LARGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CYCLONIC VORTEX IS
NEAR -150 METERS, LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. AN AREA
OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THE
THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND THEREFORE THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, ASSOCIATED WITH A
CONTINUATION OF KONA LOW ACTIVITY.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM WASHINGTON STATE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, NORTHERN ROCKIES, MOST OF
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY,
WESTERN TENNESSEE, THE NORTHEAST, AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MAXIMUM
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 PERCENT ARE DEPICTED OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST
REMAINING AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. FROM THERE, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS, THE GULF COAST AREA, AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE CONUS TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR DAYS 6-10 IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE
VARIOUS TEMPERATURE TOOLS. SOME UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE THE
GEFS REFORECAST BRINGS ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES JUST NORTH OF THE GULF
COAST, WHILE THE ECENS AND CMCE ADVANCE THE RELATIVELY WARM AIR FARTHER NORTH
TO AT LEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA. IN ALASKA, THE SKILL WEIGHTED AND
CALIBRATED CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE TOOL WHICH USES THE GEFS AND ECENS FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINLAND, IN
ADDITION TO THE ALEUTIANS, AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND. A RANGE OF
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IS FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PREDICTED NORTH OF THE REGION. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY
FAVORED OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARCHIPELAGO. THIS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
CONSOLIDATED AND AUTOMATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
KONA LOW ACTIVITY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES. THE CONSOLIDATION AND REFORECAST PRECIPITATION MAPS LEND GOOD
SUPPORT TO THIS ACTIVE SCENARIO. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN
FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH AT LEAST ONE
COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THIS REGION. ANOTHER REGION WHERE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY INCLUDES THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT
ROCKIES, WHERE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. THIS AREA EXPANDS WESTWARD TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER
MOST OF CALIFORNIA, AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEVADA, IN RESPONSE TO SLOWLY
RISING 500-HPA HEIGHTS. IN ALASKA, A SLIGHT RISK OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE. FOR APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
MAINLAND, ALASKA PENINSULA, EASTERN ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. FOR HAWAII, ANOMALOUS WETNESS IS STRONGLY FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
STATE, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A MID-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: IS ABOVE-AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION FIELDS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 30 2026
TODAY'S 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. RELATIVE TO THE
EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY FORECAST OVER THE BERING
STRAIT/SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND IS PREDICTED TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD TO THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF SIBERIA, AND WEAKEN TO NEAR +210 METERS. POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE
ALEUTIANS, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PREDICTED OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, THE BROAD CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CANADA IS FAVORED TO TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT PLAINS REGION, MUCH OF THE ROCKIES
AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND THE WEST COAST STATES FROM OREGON SOUTHWARD.
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
DURING WEEK-2.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE GULF STATES, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES OF 70 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ARE DEPICTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE ROCKIES
WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED,
WITH PROBABILITIES OF 70 PERCENT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL BASIN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS AREA IS LARGELY
DOMINATED BY MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE ALASKA
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY, WITH A LARGE
AREA OF FAVORED NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND, AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND, AS DEPICTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST. IN HAWAII,
THERE IS A STRONG TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEEK-2.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN, EASTERN, SOUTHEASTERN, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH ALIGNS
REASONABLY WELL WITH THE CONSOLIDATED AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, AND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ECENS REFORECAST PREDICTS THIS RELATIVE
DRYNESS WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD OVER MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND MOST
OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, THOUGH THIS SOLUTION STANDS ALONE AND IS NOT SUPPORTED
BY THE GEFS AND CMCE. FARTHER NORTH, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS REGARDING
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR ALASKA, BUT THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK IS REASONABLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND. FOR HAWAII, WETTER-THAN-NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED, AS SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO
5, BASED ON DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE HEIGHT MODELS AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS,
OFFSET BY A VERY WEAK PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERN AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE ASSORTED GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150124 - 20220113 - 20140117 - 20090117 - 20030107
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150124 - 20220113 - 20140117 - 20030105 - 20210115
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 30 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page