049
FXUS06 KWBC 172002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SAT JANUARY 17 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 27 2026
TODAY'S 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND CONSISTS OF A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE INPUT MODELS, WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER
WEIGHT PLACED ON THE ECENS DUE TO ITS EDGE IN ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES OVER
THE PAST 60 DAYS. AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES IS DEPICTED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, ALASKA, BERING SEA, NORTHERN
CANADA, AND MOST OF THE NORTH POLAR REGION. ON THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS IS PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA AND
JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. MAXIMUM HEIGHT DEPARTURES OF
ABOUT +330 METERS ARE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BERING STRAIT AND SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND. DOWNSTREAM, A BROAD CYCLONIC VORTEX IS FORECAST FROM CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CANADA SOUTHWARD ACROSS APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHERN ONE-THIRD TO
ONE-HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). CYCLONIC CURVATURE CONTINUES SOUTHWARD
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, THOUGH HERE THE HEIGHT DEPARTURES HAVE
CHANGED SIGN AND AVERAGE AT LEAST 30 METERS ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH THE GEFS AND
CMCE FORECASTING THE ANOMALOUS RIDGING TO EXTEND NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST STATES. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD CYCLONIC VORTEX IS NEAR -120 METERS, LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE 0Z ECENS PREDICTS A WEAKER MEAN RIDGE OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST, AND A DEEPER
ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA RELATIVE TO THE GEFS AND CMCE
ENSEMBLE MEANS. A PERSISTENT REGION OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THE THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND THEREFORE THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, ASSOCIATED WITH A CONTINUATION OF KONA LOW ACTIVITY.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM WASHINGTON STATE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, NORTHERN ROCKIES, MOST OF
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, THE NORTHEAST, THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (80-90 PERCENT) ARE DEPICTED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES REGION, AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS, THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, AND THE MEAN SEA-LEVEL
PRESSURE PATTERN PREDICTED FROM THE GEFS SUPER-ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH FEATURES
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINING CONUS, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GULF COAST AND MANY AREAS
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MEAN POLAR FRONT. IN ALASKA, THE SKILL WEIGHTED
AND CALIBRATED CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE TOOL WHICH USES THE GEFS AND ECENS
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINLAND, IN ADDITION TO THE ALEUTIANS, AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND, WHICH IS
GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND. RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS DEPICTED BY THE
CONSOLIDATION.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE
LOWER 48 STATES. THE CONSOLIDATION AND REFORECAST PRECIPITATION MAPS LEND GOOD
SUPPORT TO THIS ACTIVE SCENARIO. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN
FROM THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH AT LEAST ONE
COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THIS REGION. ANOTHER REGION WHERE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY INCLUDES THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT
ROCKIES, WHERE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM AN ARCTIC FRONT BANKED UP
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS AREA EXPANDS WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER PORTIONS
OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA, IN RESPONSE TO SLOWLY RISING 500-HPA
HEIGHTS. IN ALASKA, A SLIGHT RISK OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE AND THE FAR EASTERN INTERIOR, SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATED AND
AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE. FOR APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE MAINLAND, ALASKA PENINSULA, EASTERN ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING
AND SUBSIDENCE. FOR HAWAII, ANOMALOUS WETNESS IS STRONGLY FAVORED FOR THE
ENTIRE STATE, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A MID-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION FIELDS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 31 2026
TODAY'S 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. RELATIVE TO THE
EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY FORECAST OVER THE BERING
STRAIT/SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND IS PREDICTED TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF SIBERIA, AND WEAKEN TO NEAR +210 METERS. MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST FROM NORTH OF HAWAII
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH THE GEFS SOLUTION BEING DISPLACED SLIGHTLY WEST
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS ON THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND. A STRONG BLOCKING HIGH OVER
GREENLAND AND NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA IS FORECAST TO PUSH AN UNDERCUTTING TROUGH
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY, THE NORTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND CONTINUING WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE
FORECASTED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER RELATIVELY DRIER NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW. MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO PERSIST
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES, ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES OF ABOUT 80
PERCENT ARE DEPICTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. FROM NEAR THE ROCKIES
WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC COAST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED,
WITH PROBABILITIES OF ABOUT 80 PERCENT FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN. THIS AREA IS LARGELY DOMINATED BY MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE ALASKA TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE
ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, INFLUENCED BY NORTHEASTERLY
ANOMALOUS FLOW AND NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS. WELL TO THE SOUTH, A STRONG
TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII
DURING WEEK-2.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE
PACIFIC COAST STATES, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION,
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND PARTS OF
MINNESOTA. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH THE CONSOLIDATED AND AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS. WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS, THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA, RELATED TO A MEAN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THIS AREA, REPRESENTING THE SOUTHERN MARGINS OF
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR. INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
HIGHLIGHTED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND LOWER FOUR CORNERS REGION
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
APPROXIMATELY HALF OF THE CONUS IS FAVORED TO HAVE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DURING WEEK-2, WHICH UNDERSCORES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
EVOLUTION OF WEATHER DETAILS AMONG THE MODELS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THE ECENS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN EXTENDING THIS RELATIVE DRYNESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST CANADA. HOWEVER, RAW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM
THE GEFS AND CMCE DEPICT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. WITH THE PRONOUNCED LACK OF AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS
PRECIPITATION TOOLS, IT WAS DECIDED THAT NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION WAS THE BEST
BET FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST IN WEEK-2. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND, THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS, IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL. FOR HAWAII, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FOR ALL ISLANDS, SUPPORTED BY THE AUTOMATED AND CONSOLIDATED
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ANOMALOUS WETNESS IS FAVORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
(ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH), AND ANOMALOUS DRYNESS IS FAVORED SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO
5, BASED ON DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE HEIGHT MODELS AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS,
OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE ASSORTED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090116 - 20140117 - 20220114 - 20140122 - 20150124
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140118 - 20090116 - 20150124 - 20220113 - 20210116
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 23 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 31 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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