448
FXUS06 KWBC 182002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SUN JANUARY 18 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 28 2026
TODAY'S 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND CONSISTS OF A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE INPUT MODELS, WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER
WEIGHT PLACED ON THE ECENS DUE TO ITS EDGE IN ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES OVER
THE PAST 60 DAYS. AN AMPLIFIED, CLOSED-OFF MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA, ALASKA, THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC, EASTERN SIBERIA, NORTHERN CANADA, AND MOST OF THE NORTH POLAR REGION.
ON THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, THE MEAN RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER FAR EASTERN SIBERIA
IN BOTH THE FULL-FIELD AND HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD, WITH MAXIMUM HEIGHT DEPARTURES
OF ABOUT +300 METERS. ANOTHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH MAXIMUM HEIGHT
DEPARTURES OF +300 METERS IS PREDICTED OVER NORTHERN BAFFIN BAY, NEAR THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF GREENLAND. FARTHER SOUTH, A BROAD CYCLONIC VORTEX WITH
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS FORECAST FROM NEAR ALBERTA, CANADA,
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS), THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN, AND MUCH OF EUROPE. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CYCLONIC VORTEX IS NEAR -180 METERS,
LOCATED JUST EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE ANOMALOUS COUPLET (RIDGING OVER HIGH
LATITUDES UNDERCUT BY TROUGHING AT UPPER MID-LATITUDES) REFLECTS A NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO). JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, A
MEAN RIDGE AXIS IS DEPICTED ON THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, WITH WEAK POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE HAWAIIAN DOMAIN, THE 0Z ECENS AND 0Z CMCE CONTINUE TO
PREDICT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE ANOMALIES NORTH OF THE
ARCHIPELAGO, WHEREAS THE 6Z GEFS BARELY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS, IN MILDER PRE-COLD FRONT ENVIRONMENTS. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 90 PERCENT ARE DEPICTED OVER WISCONSIN. THIS
WIDESPREAD ANOMALOUS COLD IS SUPPORTED BY THE REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS, THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, AND THE MEAN SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN PREDICTED FROM THE
GEFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH FEATURES SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
THIS LAST TOOL PREDICTS A SURFACE HIGH OF 1037-HPA OVER NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH IS
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THIS IS NOT ONLY AN ENSEMBLE MEAN, BUT AN AVERAGE
OF THE LAST 4 GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
NEARLY ALL AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. IN ALASKA, THE SKILL WEIGHTED AND CALIBRATED
CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE TOOL WHICH USES THE GEFS AND ECENS FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND AND THE ALEUTIANS,
CLOSER TO THE HIGHEST 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THERE ARE ELEVATED CHANCES OF
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST
TEMPERATURE TOOLS. FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED IN THE TRANSITIONAL ZONE BETWEEN RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
WEST AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST. RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS PREDICTED BY THE ERF CONSOLIDATION.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS DURING WEEK-2, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD AS THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS SWEEPS THROUGH THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE CONSOLIDATION AND REFORECAST PRECIPITATION MAPS LEND
GOOD SUPPORT TO THIS ACTIVE SCENARIO. ANOTHER REGION WHERE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY INCLUDES THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT
ROCKIES, WHERE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM AN ARCTIC FRONT BANKED UP
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS AREA EXPANDS WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST, IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEPER INSIDE THE ARCTIC AIR MASS. THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST, HOWEVER, IS MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
PRECIPITATION INITIALLY RELATED TO THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, FOLLOWED BY
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SQUALLS TO THE LEE OF THE LAKES. OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST CLOSER TO
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND ENHANCED
SUBSIDENCE. FOR THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, ODDS ARE SLIGHTLY
TILTED TOWARDS WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS, BASED ON THE RAW, BIAS-CORRECTED,
AND REFORECAST PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE. FOR HAWAII, ANOMALOUS WETNESS IS FAVORED
FOR THE ENTIRE STATE, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A MID-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE ERF CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE (4 OUT OF 5), DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MOST TEMPERATURE TOOLS, OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION FIELDS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 26 - FEB 01, 2026
TODAY'S 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. RELATIVE TO THE
EARLIER 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY FORECAST OVER FAR EASTERN
SIBERIA RETROGRADES WESTWARD, WEAKENING TO NEAR +210 METERS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES MOVES INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND EXTENDS
NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS, ALASKA PENINSULA, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND OF ALASKA. MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE THE ANOMALOUS COUPLET
OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS PREDICTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND DEPICTS THE LARGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES (NEAR -120 METERS) BETWEEN
THE U.S. NORTHEAST COAST AND NOVA SCOTIA, REFLECTING A WEAKENING AND
SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE LARGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT DEPARTURES RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE THREE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE PHASING OF MAJOR LONG WAVE FEATURES, WITH RELATIVELY SMALL DISAGREEMENTS
WITH RESPECT TO FORECAST AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES. MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING WEEK-2, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO END THE RECENT KONA LOW ACTIVITY, WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES OF 80-90 PERCENT ARE DEPICTED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC COAST,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED, WITH PROBABILITIES OF 70-80
PERCENT FORECAST OVER CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, AND PARTS OF NEIGHBORING STATES. THIS
AREA IS LARGELY DOMINATED BY MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. THE ALASKA TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MAINLAND, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, AS SUPPORTED BY THE
AUTOMATED AND CONSOLIDATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ARE FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, IN
PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. WELL TO THE SOUTH, A STRONG TILT IN THE ODDS
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII DURING WEEK-2, AS
LOW-LATITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND MUCH OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS A MEAN RIDGE AXIS IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR WEST, ALLOWING MOISTURE
TO MOVE IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN TEXAS, IN THE PROXIMITY OF A
NEAR-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE. FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, ODDS
FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE COLD
AIR MASS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE ROCKIES, AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CONUS. THOUGH THE ECENS PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE STOOD ALONE BY FAVORING A DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, THE GEFS AND CMCE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. IN ALASKA, A SLIVER OF
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
MAINLAND, A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DISTANT AS IT RETROGRADES OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. MOST OF CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA, HOWEVER, IS FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING
WEEK-2, AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO INTERIOR WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA, AND ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. FOR HAWAII, THE CONSOLIDATED AND
AUTOMATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERSISTENT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED KONA LOW ACTIVITY) NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL
FINALLY MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY, AND ALLOW LOW-LATITUDE RIDGING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE WEST, FAVORING INCREASED CHANCES OF DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, BASED ON REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE HEIGHT MODELS AND
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, WITH IMPROVED AGREEMENT TODAY AMONG THE VARIOUS
PRECIPITATION TOOLS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090115 - 20140117 - 20140123 - 20090120 - 20220122
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090116 - 20140118 - 20220114 - 20140123 - 20150124
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 24 - 28 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 26 - FEB 01, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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