999
FXUS02 KWBC 190733
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
233 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
VALID 12Z THU JAN 22 2026 - 12Z MON JAN 26 2026
...BITTER COLD EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE MUCH
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS...
...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND MID-SOUTH INTO MID-ATLANTIC...
..OVERVIEW
UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE LATE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY. AT THE
SURFACE, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTH ACROSS AREAS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES AND BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLY NEARING -50F IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE,
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING ON BRINGING A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
LOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF WHICH GULF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO
STREAM IN. THIS SETUP OF MOISTURE MEETING THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL LEAD TO LIKELY SNOW AND ICE SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER NORTH
INTO THE MID- SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING ALOFT AND THE COLD SURFACE HIGH REACHING WELL INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOWER 48. WHAT HAS BEEN LESS CERTAIN IS THE
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING
AND LIKELY MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. STARTING WITH THE 12/18Z MODEL CYCLE AND
CONTINUING INTO THE NEWER 00Z CYCLE, MOST DYNAMICAL, AI, AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH QUICKER TRACK OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY,
COMPARED TO OLDER MODEL RUNS THAT MAINTAINED THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC EVEN INTO SUNDAY. WE SUPPOSE THAT BOTH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW AND THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGIES EMERGING FROM
THE PACIFIC/ARCTIC WERE NOT WELL SAMPLED IN OBSERVATIONS UNTIL
THESE RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS DRAMATIC SHIFT AFFECTS THE PATTERN BY
ALLOWING FOR PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, AND QPF HAS SHIFTED WEST
ACCORDINGLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
THEN THERE IS SOME MODEL SPREAD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS INDICATE THAT A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY JOIN UP WITH IT FOR TROUGHING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND VICINITY ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE
AIFS AND AIGFS TAKE THIS PHASED TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S., BUT MULTIPLE GFS RUNS AND THE NEW 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE LOW
SEPARATED FARTHER WEST INTO SUNDAY-MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AND
PROBABLY RELATED, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE PRECIPITATION AXIS
IN THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. AI MODELS SPREAD THE QPF FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND
THEN INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, COMPARED TO THE
GENERALLY MORE SUPPRESSED DYNAMICAL MODELS. PREFER TO FAVOR THE
MIDDLE GROUND ENSEMBLE MEANS AT THIS POINT AND SEE HOW FUTURE
MODELS TREND.
THE WPC FORECAST USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS/AIFS/UKMET EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE 12Z CMC WAS HOLDING ON TO AN OFFSHORE EPAC UPPER
LOW BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS FAVORABLY TRENDED FASTER. THEN AS THE
PERIOD PROGRESSED, QUICKLY INCREASED THE PROPORTION OF ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO OVER HALF BY DAYS 6-7 DUE TO INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ANOTHER DAY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS PILING UP DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO AFTER A SNOWY SHORT RANGE PERIOD TOO. MEANWHILE, SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY,
WHILE THE LOW ALOFT COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THEN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE, ICE AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
IN LIKELY A NOTABLE WINTER STORM. THE PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING
SNOW AND ICE, IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY, LASTING UNTIL SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY
SPREADING NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL STORM, BUT IT WILL TAKE ADDITIONAL
TIME TO REFINE THE DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE, SO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION COULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH.
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
STARTING THURSDAY UNDER AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH, WHICH WILL SPILL
MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST CAN
EXPECT EXTREME AND DANGEROUS COLD, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
REACHING THE -20S AND -30S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING, AND EVEN
COLDER WIND CHILLS POTENTIALLY REACHING -50F IN SOME LOCATIONS.
EVEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 0F THERE. MUCH COLDER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND
WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AS
FAR SOUTH AS KANSAS/MISSOURI AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE AROUND 20-30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES MAY START TO MODERATE BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS,
THOUGH REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO EASTERN
SEABOARD. MEANWHILE THE ROCKIES SHOULD BLOCK THE COLD AIR FROM
MOVING INTO THE WEST, AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE GREAT BASIN MOST DAYS.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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