594
FXUS02 KWBC 191959
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
VALID 12Z THU JAN 22 2026 - 12Z MON JAN 26 2026
...DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...
...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW AND ICE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..OVERVIEW
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTH INTO THE UNITED STATES, BRINGING
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S, ESPECIALLY THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE WIND CHILLS COULD NEAR
50 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. MEANWHILE, IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE NATION, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN GULF MOISTURE CLASHING
WITH ARCTIC COLD TO PRODUCE SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MID-SOUTH, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-
ATLANTIC FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. UNDER THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ARCTIC
AIR MAKING IT DOWN TO THE GULF AND EAST COASTS, WHICH WILL CLASH
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT
WINTER STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THERE ARE SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS THAT MAY AFFECT SENSIBLE
WEATHER. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS SOLUTIONS WERE THE ONLY DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS STILL HANGING ON TO A SLOWER UPPER LOW LINGERING NEAR
BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NEXT WEEK, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE (INCLUDING AI)
HAS TRENDED MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE.
FOR THIS REASON, THE WPC FORECAST FAVORED A FASTER SOLUTION WITH
VERY LIMITED INFLUENCE FROM THE GFS. A FASTER SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW WITH A BROADER PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT. THERE IS STILL A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARDS WITH THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AXIS, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH WHAT THE AI GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING,
SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NBM TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS IN THE
WPC FORECAST.
THE WPC FORECAST USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC/UKMET EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, THEN INCREASED CONTRIBUTIONS FROM ENSEMBLE MEANS
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WHILE DECREASING THE
INFLUENCE OF THE GFS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS
PILING UP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AFTER A SNOWY SHORT RANGE PERIOD
TOO. MEANWHILE, SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY, WHILE THE LOW ALOFT COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTH, AND
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS A WINTER STORM DEVELOPS. WITH COLD ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE, ICE AND SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER. PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SNOW AND ICE, IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY, LASTING
UNTIL SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY SPREADING NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A POTENTIALLY MAJOR
WINTER STORM, BUT IT WILL TAKE ADDITIONAL TIME TO REFINE THE
DETAILS OF WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECASTS. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH.
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. STARTING THURSDAY UNDER AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH, WHICH
WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST CAN EXPECT EXTREME COLD, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING
20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING, AND
EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS POTENTIALLY REACHING NEGATIVE 50 DEGREES IN
SOME LOCATIONS. EVEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ZERO DEGREES
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND TOWARDS
THE GULF AND EAST COASTS THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS AND ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20-30+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES MAY
START TO MODERATE BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS, THOUGH REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE
THE ROCKIES SHOULD BLOCK THE COLD AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE WEST,
AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN
THE GREAT BASIN MOST DAYS.
DOLAN/TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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