622
FXUS06 KWBC 192004
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 19 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 29 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AGREE ON THE AVERAGE
LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO A VARIABLE PATTERN. THE WEIGHTED MANUAL BLEND OF
THE THREE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS, WITH THE ECMWF MODEL GIVEN THE GREATEST
WEIGHT DUE TO RECENT ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL, INDICATES AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE STATE OF
ALASKA. DURING THE PERIOD, A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC PROGRESS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS
AND AMPLIFY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF CANADA AND
THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS. EARLY IN
THE PERIOD A PREDICTED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
CONUS IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST,
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED
OVER REMAINING AREAS OF ALASKA UNDER A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC
COAST TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE. WITH GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG MODEL TOOLS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, UNDER AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND NORTHERLY
FLOW. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 90 PERCENT FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER A
LARGE AREA OF THE EAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR ALASKA SLIGHTLY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA,
UNDER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER PREDICTED SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFY DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, MODELS PREDICT DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN,
AND THE SOUTHWEST, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE. AREAS OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS, WITH ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AHEAD OF A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY
A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS AND EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER
TIME. ALL MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXTENT AND
AMPLITUDE OF EXPANDING NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. MODELS PREDICT SOME
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE WESTERN CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AND WEAKER NEGATIVE ANOMALIES
LATER IN THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER A LARGER AREA OF MAINLAND ALASKA
THAN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCLUDING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND, UNDER
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR FAR WESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, UNDER EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, AS A RIDGE PERSISTS
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH THROUGH
MOST OF THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO EXCEED 80 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, CONSISTENT
WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER AN INCREASING AREA OF MAINLAND
ALASKA IN WEEK 2, EXCLUDING NORTHWESTERN AREAS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. A
RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
WEST, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE PACIFIC COAST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FROM SAN FRANCISCO
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE AREA OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MOST OF
THE EASTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTS, UNDER A
PERSISTENT TROUGH. HOWEVER, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII
IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WITH DIFFERENCES AMONG DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO A CHANGING PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090114 - 19990104 - 20190127 - 20220123 - 20140124
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090115 - 20140118 - 20090120 - 20140123 - 20220116
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 25 - 29 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - FEB 02, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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