896
FXUS02 KWBC 200752
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
VALID 12Z FRI JAN 23 2026 - 12Z TUE JAN 27 2026
...DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND ICE IMPACTS...
..OVERVIEW
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTH INTO THE UNITED STATES, BRINGING
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S, ESPECIALLY THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE WIND CHILLS COULD BE NEAR
50 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. MEANWHILE, A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
GULF MOISTURE CLASHING WITH ARCTIC COLD TO PRODUCE SNOW AND ICE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MID-SOUTH,
SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ARCTIC AIR MAKING IT DOWN
TO THE GULF AND EAST COASTS, WHICH WILL CLASH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TO PRODUCE A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THE DETAILS
OF BOTH THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THESE DETAILS WILL
IMPACT THINGS SUCH AS THE TIMING, SNOW/ICE LINE, AND THE NORTHERN
GRADIENT OF THE SNOWFALL. WHILE THESE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
WORKED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS, IT SEEMS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL OCCUR.
THE 12Z/18Z GFS RUNS FROM YESTERDAY WERE EXTREME OUTLIERS WITH A
MUCH SLOWER AND EVEN CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY NEAR CA. THE
00Z GFS HAS SINCE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER
MODELS, BUT GIVEN IT APPEARS TO JUST BE CATCHING ON TO THINGS, WE
STILL PREFER TO ONLY GIVE IT A LITTLE WEIGHT IN THIS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE TAKING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC/UKMET, THE ECENS/GEFS AND
THE AI MODEL SUITE, SEEMINGLY RESULTS IN A PRETTY GOOD MIDDLE
GROUND FORECAST AT THIS POINT AND IS REFLECTED IN THE WPC QPF
FORECAST.
FORECAST DETAILS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RELATING
TO HOW MUCH TROUGHING AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PERSISTS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART THESE DIFFERENCES DO NOT
RESULT IN A DIFFERENCE IN WEATHER HAZARDS, SO MORE JUST A TRICKY
FRONTAL FORECAST. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z ECMWF
KEEPS SO MUCH ENERGY BEHIND THAT IT EVENTUALLY CATCHES THE SOUTHERN
STREAM WINTER STORM RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW AND
WINTER IMPACTS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WHILE WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS, IT IS A MAJOR SHIFT FROM THE
EARLIER 12Z ECMWF, AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER
PHYSICAL OR AI GUIDANCE. THE PATTERN BY THIS TIME WILL BE VERY
SENSITIVE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE TROUGH, AND WOULD
EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL RUN TO RUN VOLATILITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE TWO MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE WINTER STORM SHOULD
START IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY,
EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY,
AND INTO THE MID-ATLLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT, WITH A LARGE SWATH OF HAZARDOUS WINTER
CONDITIONS.
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED, LIKELY RESULTING IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND POWER
OUTAGES. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WHERE FREEZING RAIN IS
OCCURRING, WHICH WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE
EXACT SWATH OF ICE WILL A BIT UNCERTAIN UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT...BUT CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES STRETCH FROM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS
OF SC/NC.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS ICING THREAT WILL BE A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL STRETCHING FROM OK INTO THE TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC.
AGAIN, WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
GRADIENTS OF THIS SNOW, AND ALSO THE EXACT MAGNITUDES...BUT A
RATHER WIDE SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL INCREASE TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THIS SNOW
AND ALSO RESULT IN SNOW RATIOS LIKELY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS THAN APPLYING A SIMPLE
10-1 RATIO TO QPF WOULD GIVE YOU...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE SNOWFALL AXIS.
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. STARTING THURSDAY UNDER AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH, WHICH
WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST CAN EXPECT EXTREME COLD, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING
20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING, AND
EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS POTENTIALLY REACHING NEGATIVE 50 DEGREES IN
SOME LOCATIONS. EVEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ZERO DEGREES
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND
TOWARDS THE GULF AND EAST COASTS THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS OKLAHOMA/MISSOURI AND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 20-30+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES MAY START TO MODERATE BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS, THOUGH REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE THE ROCKIES SHOULD BLOCK THE COLD AIR
FROM MOVING INTO THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
CHENARD/DOLAN
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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