067
FXUS02 KWBC 202000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026
VALID 12Z FRI JAN 23 2026 - 12Z TUE JAN 27 2026
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND ICE IMPACTS...
...DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...
..OVERVIEW
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S, ESPECIALLY THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE WIND CHILLS COULD
BE NEAR 50 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW MOVING
ONSHORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO INTERACT AND CLASH WITH
THE ARCTIC AIR WHILE TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING ON
FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MID-SOUTH, SOUTHEAST,
AND THE MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A FASTER SOUTHWARD PLUNGE OF THE ARCTIC
AIR AND THE ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, RESULTING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. IT REMAINS THE CASE THAT THE CLASH OF THE
ARCTIC PLUNGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER BEGINNING ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY MAINLY ON THE ALONG-TRACK TIMING OF THE SOUTHERN
AND STREAM ENERGY AND THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGHING. THE UNCERTAINTY WILL IMPACT THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT SNOW/ICE LINE AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF THE
SNOWFALL. WHILE THESE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT OVER THE
COMING DAYS, A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT A WIDE
SWATH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THE WPC MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
BLEND OF 40% FROM THE 00Z EC/EC MEAN, 40% FROM THE 06Z GFS/GEFS,
AND 20% FROM THE CMC/CMC MEAN WITH MUCH OF THE BLEND COMING FROM
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BY DAY 7. THIS BLEND SMOOTHS OVER THE MODEL
EXTREMES AND PROVIDES A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION BETWEEN THE FAST
GFS SOLUTION AND THE SLOW EC SOLUTION.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE TWO MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE WINTER STORM SHOULD
START IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY,
EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY,
AND INTO THE MID-ATLLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
WIDESPREAD EVENT, WITH A LARGE SWATH OF HAZARDOUS WINTER
CONDITIONS.
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED, LIKELY RESULTING IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND POWER
OUTAGES. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WHERE FREEZING RAIN IS
OCCURRING, WHICH WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE
EXACT SWATH OF ICE WILL A BIT UNCERTAIN UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT...BUT CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES STRETCH FROM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS
OF SC/NC.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS ICING THREAT WILL BE A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL STRETCHING FROM OK INTO THE TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC.
AGAIN, WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
GRADIENTS OF THIS SNOW, AND ALSO THE EXACT MAGNITUDES...BUT A
RATHER WIDE SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL INCREASE TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THIS SNOW
AND ALSO RESULT IN SNOW RATIOS LIKELY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS THAN APPLYING A SIMPLE
10-1 RATIO TO QPF WOULD GIVE YOU...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE SNOWFALL AXIS.
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. STARTING THURSDAY UNDER AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH, WHICH
WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST CAN EXPECT EXTREME COLD, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING
20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING, AND
EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS POTENTIALLY REACHING NEGATIVE 50 DEGREES IN
SOME LOCATIONS. EVEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW ZERO DEGREES
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND
TOWARDS THE GULF AND EAST COASTS THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS OKLAHOMA/MISSOURI AND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 20-30+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES MAY START TO MODERATE BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE
HIGH WEAKENS, THOUGH REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE THE ROCKIES SHOULD BLOCK THE COLD AIR
FROM MOVING INTO THE WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
KONG/CHENARD/DOLAN
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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