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FXUS06 KWBC 202015
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 20 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 26 - 30 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION (AO). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, WITH A PAIR OF POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY MAXIMA OF OVER 270 METERS FORECAST OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT AND
NORTHEASTERN SIBERIA, RESPECTIVELY. ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES, MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SPAN ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH ATLANTIC FROM EUROPE TO
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE US
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF ALASKA IN-BETWEEN THE RIDGES FORECAST OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND OVER SIBERIA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE ALEUTIANS, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII,
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.
THE STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH POTENTIAL
SNOW COVER ADDING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF BITTERLY COLD AIR FOR PART OF THIS
REGION. CONVERSELY, ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SUPPORTS
INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA UNDER MOSTLY
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII,
LARGELY DRIVEN BY ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC.
AS EXPANSIVE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS UPON MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST AREAS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH, ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, THE GREAT
BASIN, AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ALASKA AS WELL AS PARTS OF NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH RAW DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
TRENDING DRIER FOR HAWAII, RELATED TO ANOMALOUS RIDGING FORECAST TO THE WEST OF
THE STATE. THEREFORE, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE REDUCED
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS NOW FAVORED FOR THE
STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE AO PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 03, 2026
A STRONG NEGATIVE AO PATTERN REMAINS FAVORED FOR WEEK-2, BUT WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY MAXIMA OF 210 METERS AND 150
METERS ARE FORECAST FOR DAVIS STRAIT AND NORTHERN SIBERIA, RESPECTIVELY. BELOW
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM
THE COAST. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH ASSOCIATED
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, THE BERING SEA,
AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 90
PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL SNOW COVER ADDING TO THE
CHANCES OF COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN
CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE)
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THE GREAT BASIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES FROM
THE RIDGE OVER DAVIS STRAIT AND THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SIBERIA. A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THESE REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, LARGELY DRIVEN BY ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC AND ANOMALOUS RIDGING.
EXPANSIVE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WELL INTO WEEK-2
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT
CHANCE) OF DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, WHERE TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE PREDICTED
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO POSTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, EASTERN GREAT BASIN, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING. AS THE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA PUSHES INLAND, INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PARTS OF ADJACENT
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
TELECONNECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THERE ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH
RAW DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE STRONG POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER FORECAST OVER THE DAVIS STRAIT. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS
RIDGING.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED CONTINUED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE AO PATTERN, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19990104 - 19940131 - 20190127 - 20220125 - 20090114
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090115 - 20220124 - 19990104 - 20090121 - 20190127
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 26 - 30 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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