128
FXUS02 KWBC 212000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JAN 24 2026 - 12Z WED JAN 28 2026
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND ICE IMPACTS...
...HAZARDOUS COLD IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
INTERACT WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERRIDE THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WHILE ALSO INGESTING GULF MOISTURE, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION, HOWEVER DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS PERSIST. THE MOST NOTABLE QUESTION DEALS WITH THE
DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS, AND THE OVERALL DEPTH/STRENGTH OF
THE RESULTANT PHASED TROUGH. MORE/EARLIER INTERACTION AND A
STRONGER TROUGH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
AND THUS AN OVERALL STORM TRACK FARTHER NORTH. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON DO CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FARTHER NORTH
SCENARIO COMPARED TO JUST A DAY AGO. THIS TREND REALLY HAS LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON THE FACT THAT A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM IS GOING TO OCCUR...BUT IT DOES PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN EXACTLY
WHERE THE RAIN/ICE/SNOW LINES SET UP, AND HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVY
SNOW AXIS EXTENDS, POTENTIALLY BRINGING BIGGER IMPACTS TO PLACES
LIKE NYC AND BOSTON.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY,
GIVEN THE 12Z GUIDANCE COMING IN CLOSE TO PRIOR 00Z GUIDANCE. BUT
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO SHIFT AGAIN (WHETHER
FURTHER NORTH OR BACK SOUTH). BUT THERE MAY BE STARTING TO SEE SOME
BETTER CONSOLIDATION IN THE FORECAST AND LESS RUN TO RUN SWINGS.
DESPITE THIS, THE EXACT DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES IS FAR FROM
SETTLED UPON AND WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE FOR ANY ONE GIVEN
LOCATION. EITHER WAY, IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT IN JUST ABOUT
EVERY OUTCOME WE GET A WIDESPREAD AND MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH MANY
AREAS GETTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS REGARDLESS OF THESE EXACT
DETAILS. THESE DETAILS ARE, HOWEVER, IMPORTANT FOR EXACTLY WHERE
THE MAXIMUM SNOW AND ICE TOTALS OCCUR. THE CURRENT WPC QPF AND
MASS FIELDS ARE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONTINUITY, AND CONSISTENT WITH
THE LATEST TRENDS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THE GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING
IN THE WEST WILL PERSIST. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS WHICH DOES RESULT IN QUITE A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE NBM WAS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL MEANS, SO WE DID NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE WILL LIKELY
HAVE SOME LARGER THAN NORMAL ERRORS...JUST HARD TO STAY WHETHER
COLDER OR WARMER WINS OUT ALONG THIS RIDGE/TROUGH INTERFACE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE TWO MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID- ATLANTIC, AND THE HAZARDOUS COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE WINTER STORM SHOULD START IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY, EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY, AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT,
WITH A LARGE SWATH OF HAZARDOUS WINTER CONDITIONS.
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET IS EXPECTED, LIKELY RESULTING IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
AND POWER OUTAGES. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WHERE FREEZING RAIN IS
OCCURRING, WHICH WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE
EXACT SWATH OF ICE WILL A BIT UNCERTAIN UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT...BUT CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES STRETCH FROM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SC/NC.
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD TREND WOULD LIKELY SHIFT THIS SWATH A
BIT FARTHER NORTH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC, SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS ICING THREAT WILL BE A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL STRETCHING FROM OK INTO THE TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC.
AGAIN, WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
GRADIENTS OF THIS SNOW, AND ALSO THE EXACT MAGNITUDES...BUT A
RATHER WIDE SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL ONLY EXACERBATE TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THIS
SNOW. WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE, THIS MAY PUT
MORE OF THE MAJOR EAST COAST CITIES (NEW YORK CITY, BOSTON) IN
PLAY.
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. UNDER AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH, WHICH WILL PUSH MUCH
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES) FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST CAN EXPECT EXTREME COLD, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING
20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT COULD STILL
BE LOOKING AT VALUES REACHING NEGATIVE 40 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS
SATURDAY MORNING. WELL SOUTH, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL TX AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO MODERATE
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS, THOUGH REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO EASTERN SEABOARD.
BEYOND THE WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE U.S. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET, THOUGH SOME SNOWFALL LOOKS
POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHEAST UPPER LOW. THE ROCKIES
SHOULD BLOCK THE COLD AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE WEST WHERE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.
SANTORELLI/CHENARD
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page