076
FXUS02 KWBC 212004
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JAN 24 2026 - 12Z WED JAN 28 2026
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND ICE IMPACTS...
...HAZARDOUS COLD IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S.. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WILL INTERACT
WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERRIDE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WHILE
ALSO INGESTING GULF MOISTURE, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION, HOWEVER DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS PERSIST. THE MOST NOTABLE QUESTION DEALS WITH THE
DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY OVER THE PLAINS, AND THE OVERALL DEPTH/STRENGTH OF
THE RESULTANT PHASED TROUGH. MORE/EARLIER INTERACTION AND A
STRONGER TROUGH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
AND THUS AN OVERALL STORM TRACK FARTHER NORTH. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON DO CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FARTHER NORTH
SCENARIO COMPARED TO JUST A DAY AGO. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD
SHIFT HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY, GIVEN THE 12Z GUIDANCE COMING
IN CLOSE TO PRIOR 00Z GUIDANCE. BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THINGS TO SHIFT AGAIN (WHETHER FURTHER NORTH OR BACK SOUTH).
BUT WE MAY BE STARTING TO SEE SOME BETTER CONSOLIDATION IN THE
FORECAST AND LESS RUN TO RUN SWINGS. DESPITE THIS, THE EXACT
DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES IS FAR FROM SETTLED UPON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO CHANGE FOR ANY ONE GIVEN LOCATION. EITHER WAY, IT
SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT IN JUST ABOUT EVERY OUTCOME WE GET A
WIDESPREAD AND MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH MANY AREAS GETTING
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS REGARDLESS OF THESE EXACT DETAILS. THESE
DETAILS ARE, HOWEVER, IMPORTANT FOR EXACTLY WHERE THE MAXIMUM SNOW
AND ICE TOTALS OCCUR. THE CURRENT WPC QPF AND MASS FIELDS ARE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONTINUITY, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
TRENDS, AND AS A RESULT, BRINGS MORE MAJOR EAST COAST CITIES (NYC
AND BOSTON) INTO PLAY.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THE GENERAL TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND RIDGING
IN THE WEST WILL PERSIST WITH SOME VARIABILITY STILL IN THE
SHORTWAVE DETAILS. A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WORKED WELL FOR THIS,
AND THE 13Z NBM WAS A VIABLE STARTING POINT FOR THE TEMPERATURE
GRIDS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE TWO MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID- ATLANTIC, AND THE HAZARDOUS COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE WINTER STORM SHOULD START IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY, EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY, AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT,
WITH A LARGE SWATH OF HAZARDOUS WINTER CONDITIONS.
ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET IS EXPECTED, LIKELY RESULTING IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
AND POWER OUTAGES. GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S WHERE FREEZING RAIN IS
OCCURRING, WHICH WILL ONLY ACT TO INCREASE TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE
EXACT SWATH OF ICE WILL A BIT UNCERTAIN UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT...BUT CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES STRETCH FROM
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SC/NC.
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD TREND WOULD LIKELY SHIFT THIS SWATH A
BIT FARTHER NORTH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC, SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS ICING THREAT WILL BE A SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL STRETCHING FROM OK INTO THE TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC.
AGAIN, WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
GRADIENTS OF THIS SNOW, AND ALSO THE EXACT MAGNITUDES...BUT A
RATHER WIDE SWATH OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL ONLY EXACERBATE TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THIS
SNOW. WITH THE CURRENT NORTHWARD TREND IN GUIDANCE, THIS MAY PUT
MORE OF THE MAJOR EAST COAST CITIES (NEW YORK CITY, BOSTON) IN
PLAY.
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. UNDER AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH, WHICH WILL PUSH MUCH
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 DEGREES)
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
UPPER MIDWEST CAN EXPECT EXTREME COLD, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
REACHING 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.
THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT COULD
STILL BE LOOKING AT VALUES REACHING NEGATIVE 40 DEGREES IN SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING. WELL SOUTH, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE TEENS AS FAR SOUTH AS OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS AND ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL TX AND
INTO THE TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO
MODERATE BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS, THOUGH
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO EASTERN SEABOARD.
BEYOND THE WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND, CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE U.S. SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET, THOUGH SOME SNOWFALL
LOOKS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHEAST UPPER LOW. THE ROCKIES
SHOULD BLOCK THE COLD AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE WEST WHERE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.
SANTORELLI/CHENARD
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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