941
FXUS06 KWBC 212027
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED JANUARY 21 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - 31 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION (AO). MUCH ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, WITH A PAIR OF POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY MAXIMA OF OVER 270 METERS FORECAST OVER NORTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND AND
NORTHEASTERN SIBERIA, RESPECTIVELY. ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES, MUCH BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO SPAN ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH ATLANTIC FROM EUROPE TO
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE US
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF ALASKA IN-BETWEEN THE RIDGES FORECAST OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND OVER SIBERIA. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOMALOUS RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.
THE STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH POTENTIAL
SNOW COVER ADDING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF BITTERLY COLD AIR FOR PART OF THIS
REGION. CONVERSELY, ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SUPPORTS
INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE
ALEUTIANS, NEAR A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA UNDER MOSTLY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, LARGELY DRIVEN BY ABOVE
NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AS EXPANSIVE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS UPON MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST AREAS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH, ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, DUE
TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. A SMALL AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BROADLY
CONSISTENT WITH RAW DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING
DRIER FOR HAWAII, RELATED TO ANOMALOUS RIDGING FORECAST TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE AO PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 04, 2026
A STRONG NEGATIVE AO PATTERN REMAINS FAVORED FOR WEEK-2, BUT WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY MAXIMA OF 210 METERS AND 150
METERS ARE FORECAST FOR BAFFIN ISLAND AND NORTHERN SIBERIA, RESPECTIVELY. BELOW
NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS. ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED INLAND FROM THE COAST. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS
FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH ASSOCIATED BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVERSPREADING
MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, THE BERING SEA, AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC. GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST
COAST. UNUSUALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL SNOW COVER ADDING TO THE CHANCES OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS. PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO
THE GREAT BASIN. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE ALEUTIANS, NEAR A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES FROM THE RIDGE OVER
BAFFIN ISLAND AND THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SIBERIA. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR THESE REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, LARGELY DRIVEN BY ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC AND ANOMALOUS RIDGING.
EXPANSIVE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WELL INTO WEEK-2
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
SOUTHWESTWARD TO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
(GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST
FOR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST, WHERE TELECONNECTIONS FROM
THE PREDICTED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN TEXAS, NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE PREDICTED
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, DUE TO PREDICTED
ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING. AS THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA PUSHES
INLAND, INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PARTS OF ADJACENT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS MORE LIKELY FOR MOST OF HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED CONTINUED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE AO PATTERN, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19990104 - 19940131 - 20190127 - 20220126 - 20150110
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19990104 - 20190127 - 20220124 - 19940131 - 20090114
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - 31 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N B
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page