600
FXCA20 KWBC 212037
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 21 JANUARY 2026 AT 2040 UTC:
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RAINFALL ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED OVER SELECT AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OVERLAP, WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMAIN
OBSERVES MORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR, WITH SECONDARY
RAINFALL MAXIMA ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PATTERN ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN, PROMOTING ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS, NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA, EASTERN COSTA RICA, AND EASTERN PANAMA. OVER THESE
AREAS, TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 60 MM, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD COASTAL TERRAIN.
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, DEEPER MOISTURE AND SUSTAINED
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. THESE AREAS ARE
FORECAST TO OBSERVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WITHIN THE
TROPICAL DOMAIN, WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 40 TO 80 MM AND
LOCALIZED MAXIMA POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 100 MM, PARTICULARLY OVER
WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE CONVECTION MAY BECOME PERSISTENT NEAR THE
TERRAIN.
IN THE MID LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA, PROMOTING
SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITING THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF DEEPER CONVECTION
OUTSIDE OF THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES. THIS MID-LEVEL
PATTERN HELPS CONFINE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO WESTERN
COLOMBIA, ECUADOR, AND PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, WHILE RAINFALL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS
MORE ISOLATED.
ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS, RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL DOMAIN, REINFORCING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS
IN UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PROVIDE
BRIEF PERIODS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. OVER THESE AREAS, RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED, GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 40
MM, PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH TRANSIENT CONVECTIVE BANDS AND TRADE
WIND CONVERGENCE.
ALAMO...(WPC)
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