898
FXUS02 KWBC 220801
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 25 2026 - 12Z THU JAN 29 2026
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INTO SUNDAY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND ICE IMPACTS...
...HAZARDOUS COLD IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..OVERVIEW
A DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE U.S. AS THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM PORTIONS OF TEXAS ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC, WHILE HEAVY SNOW WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS ON THE FRINGES OF AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE
GRADUALLY MODERATING. AFTER THIS MAJOR WINTER STORM, BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING WILL BRING ROUNDS OF WEAK TO MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY, AND
EVENTUALLY SOME PRECIPITATION MAY REACH THE WEST BY MIDWEEK.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AS
MODELS TRACK UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY SUNDAY,
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY EARLY MONDAY, AND CROSSING THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY EARLY TUESDAY. SOME MODEL
SPREAD REMAINED WITH THE 12/18Z MODEL CYCLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM; THE 18Z GFS WAS FASTER
WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH, WHICH SUPPRESSED THE SYSTEM
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WHILE THE 12Z UKMET WAS SLOWER THAN
CONSENSUS. FAVORED THE 12Z ECMWF AND AIFS ALONG WITH THE CMC, AND
EVEN THE 12Z GFS SEEMED REASONABLE. THE NEWER 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS
AND UKMET HAVE CONVERGED TOWARD THIS CONSENSUS SOLUTION. THUS, THE
FORECAST FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE OVER THE PAST DAY WITH
THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO COME INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ABOUT THE DETAILS OF THE
WINTER STORM AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION, BUT THE WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT NATURE OF THE WINTER STORM IS STILL VIRTUALLY CERTAIN.
AFTER THIS IMPACTFUL TROUGH AXIS PULLS AWAY, BROAD TROUGHING WILL
STILL GET REINFORCED FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS SHOW TYPICAL SPREAD,
BUT A MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE BLEND SEEMED TO HANDLE IT WELL.
MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO FORM ATOP THE WEST COAST
UNTIL ENERGY MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOW MUCH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY (STEMMING FROM AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF
ALASKA) SUPPRESSES AND REORIENTS THE UPPER RIDGE DOES REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AND WILL IMPACT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN THE WEST.
PREFER TO STICK CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THE WEST BY THEN
GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
INTO SUNDAY, EXTREME WEATHER WILL BE ONGOING IN THE FORM OF THE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. AND THE
HAZARDOUS COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS, THE WINTER STORM SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN
BUT STILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ICE INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, AND
REACHING THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. A CORRIDOR OF HEAVY
SLEET MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE AREAS OF
MAXIMUM ICE AS WELL. THEN TO THE NORTH, HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTO THE NORTHEAST. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH A FOOT OR MORE IN THE
I-95 MAJOR CITIES FROM DC TO BOSTON, THOUGH CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECASTS AS CHANGES COULD OCCUR.
AFTER THE MAJOR WINTER STORM, DRIER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER 48 FOR THE MOST PART. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
BE LIKELY IN THE COLD WESTERLY FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK, AND A CLIPPER
SYSTEM COULD SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
IS UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE WEST, THOUGH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND BROADER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD REACH THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK.
THE FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL BRING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TO RECORD-
SETTING TEMPERATURES TO MANY AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE COLD
AIR AS ICE AND SNOW ARE OCCURRING WILL EXACERBATE TRAVEL IMPACTS,
AND THEN COULD INCREASE RECOVERY TIME AS THE COLD LINGERS BEHIND
THE STORM. ON SUNDAY, THE PLAINS CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES OF 20-30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH EVEN GREATER ANOMALIES OF 35F BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE 20S WITH
SNOW AND ICE COVERED GROUND. DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS LOWS REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHERN TIER, BITTER COLD IS
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MILDER
BY TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS IS THE CASE IN MOST AREAS, THAT COLD
BUT LESS ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST IN THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND COLD ANOMALIES MAY BECOME STRONGER ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND VICINITY. MEANWHILE, THE ROCKIES
SHOULD BLOCK THE COLD AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE WEST WHERE AN UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.
TATE
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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