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FXUS06 KWBC 222004
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 22 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 01, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AGREE ON THE AVERAGE
LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
WITH ALL MODELS PREDICTING A VERY AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH
THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO). ALL 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS AND A WEIGHTED MANUAL BLEND, WITH THE ECMWF MODEL GIVEN THE GREATEST
WEIGHT DUE TO RECENT ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL, INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALASKA OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDS ACROSS
THE STATE OF ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS). AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. LATE IN THE PERIOD, A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD, WITH FALLING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS AND RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER,
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, SHIFTS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND,
UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, UNDER
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY
FOR THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, UNDER A
PREDICTED RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN
CONUS, INCLUDING MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH.
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH POTENTIAL SNOW COVER INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND
FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO WASHINGTON.
UNDER THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AND AN INFLUX OF ARCTIC
AIR, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF COLD AIR AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET BY
A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 05, 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS AND EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER
TIME. ALL MODELS PREDICT A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, WITH ASSOCIATED
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
MODELS PREDICT SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE MANUAL BLEND. THE TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ARE PREDICTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY
IN THE LOCATION OF LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES INCREASE LATER IN
WEEK 2.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER A LARGER AREA OF MAINLAND ALASKA THAN
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND, UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE AREA OF VERY LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASES
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN WEEK 2, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY OVER MOST OF
THE EASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, EXCLUDING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND NORTHERN MAINE, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WITH REDUCED
PROBABILITIES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR MAINLAND
ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN WEEK 2, UNDER SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL FORECAST TOOLS FOR THE
8-14 DAY PERIOD LEAD TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE
CONUS, RELATIVE TO 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR INTERIOR
REGIONS OF THE WEST FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, UNDER THE
PREDICTED RIDGE. UNDER CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW AND AN INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOST
OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, EXCLUDING THE GULF COAST. CONSISTENT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, MOST OF TEXAS, SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA, AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII IN THE 8-14
DAY PERIOD, WITH DIFFERENCES AMONG DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST AND AMONG
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, OFFSET BY A CHANGING PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19990104 - 19940201 - 20230127 - 20150110 - 20220126
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19990105 - 19940201 - 20190127 - 20150101 - 20220125
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 01, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 05, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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