346
FXUS02 KWBC 230757
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
VALID 12Z MON JAN 26 2026 - 12Z FRI JAN 30 2026
...LAST VESTIGES OF THE UPCOMING HISTORIC WINTER STORM TO DEPART A
SNOWY NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH COASTAL LOW EXIT...
..CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT INTO NEXT WEEK
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
A HORRIBLY COLD AND SNOWY/ICY PATTERN FOR MANY EASES NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REMAIN REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION, BUT FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES MORE RAPIDLY MID-LATER NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL-MID SCALE
WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL FLOW. ACCORDINGLY, THE
WPC MEDIUM-RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET MODELS FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE MORE COMPATIBLE ENSEMBLE
MEANS THROUGH LONGER TIME FRAMES. THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINS GOOD WPC
PRODUCT CONTINUITY IN LINE WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPCOMING
HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL HOLD DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. INTO NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE NEXT WEEK, BUT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED IN AREAS
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW/ICE COVERAGE. AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT
WILL BRING ROUNDS OF WEAK TO MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM SNOWS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST,
BUT ESPECIALLY LEE OF THE LAKES. UPSTREAM, AN AMPLIFIED MEAN UPPER
RIDGE WILL PREVAIL NEAR THE WEST COAST IN A BENIGN PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE WEST, BUT MODEST RAINFALL MAY GRADUALLY WORK TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID-LATER NEXT WEEK WITH ENERGY RIDING THE RIDGE.
WIDESPREAD MAJOR IMPACTS IN THE HEAVY ICE/SNOW AFTERMATH WILL
SUFFER FROM INCREASED RECOVERY TIME IN THE LINGEIRNG FRIGID AIR BEHIND
THE STORM. DAILY RECORDS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. AS LOWS REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHERN TIER, BITTER COLD IS FORECAST TO
LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BECOME SOMEWHAT MILDER TUESDAY
BEFORE A SOMEWHAT LESS AMOMALOUS SURGE MIDWEEK SET TO SUBSEQUENTLY
WORK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE, THE
ROCKIES SHOULD BLOCK MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE
MORE SEASONAL WEST UNDER CLOSER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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