917
FXUS02 KWBC 231957
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
VALID 12Z MON JAN 26 2026 - 12Z FRI JAN 30 2026
...LAST VESTIGES OF THE UPCOMING HISTORIC WINTER STORM TO DEPART A
SNOWY NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH COASTAL LOW EXIT...
..CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT INTO NEXT WEEK
20Z UPDATE: THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY
GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE
WEST. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT NEAR THE WEST
COAST HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE PACIFIC MOVES INLAND. THE UKMET AND GFS ARE FASTER TO BRING
THIS TROUGH INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHEREAS THE
CMC/ECMWF ARE CLOSER AND INDICATE A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING.
THERE WAS BETTER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS, SO THE
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME PERIOD WAS HEDGED MORE IN THE ECENS/ECMWF/CMC
DIRECTION. IN TERMS OF QPF, VALUES WERE RAISED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS COMPARED TO THE NBM,
AND THIS ALSO HOLDS TRUE FOR MOISTURE MOVING INLAND ACROSS
CALIFORNIA LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SOME STAYING
POWER ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY LIKELY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR HIGHS
EACH DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAILY RECORD LOWS TO BE SET.
THIS WILL BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR ANY AREAS THAT HAVE EXTENDED
POWER OUTAGES FROM THE MAJOR WEEKEND WINTER STORM. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION IS APPENDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. /HAMRICK
--------------------
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
A HORRIBLY COLD AND SNOWY/ICY PATTERN FOR MANY EASES NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REMAIN REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION, BUT FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES MORE RAPIDLY MID-LATER NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL-MID SCALE
WEATHER SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL FLOW. ACCORDINGLY, THE
WPC MEDIUM-RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET MODELS FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE MORE COMPATIBLE ENSEMBLE
MEANS THROUGH LONGER TIME FRAMES. THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINS GOOD WPC
PRODUCT CONTINUITY IN LINE WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPCOMING
HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. INTO NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE NEXT WEEK, BUT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED IN AREAS
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW/ICE COVERAGE. AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT
WILL BRING ROUNDS OF WEAK TO MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM SNOWS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST,
BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE LAKES. UPSTREAM, AN AMPLIFIED
MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL NEAR THE WEST COAST IN A BENIGN
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEST, BUT MODEST RAINFALL MAY GRADUALLY
REACH THE WEST COAST TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING INLAND.
WIDESPREAD MAJOR IMPACTS IN THE HEAVY ICE/SNOW AFTERMATH WILL
SUFFER FROM INCREASED RECOVERY TIME IN THE LINGERING FRIGID AIR
BEHIND THE STORM. DAILY RECORDS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. AS LOWS REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHERN TIER, BITTER COLD IS FORECAST
TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS SEVERE BY
TUESDAY BEFORE A SOMEWHAT LESS ANOMALOUS SURGE MIDWEEK IS SET TO
SUBSEQUENTLY WORK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES.
MEANWHILE, THE ROCKIES SHOULD BLOCK MUCH OF THIS COLD AIR FROM
MOVING INTO THE MORE SEASONAL WEST UNDER CLOSER INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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