083
FXUS06 KWBC 232002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI JANUARY 23 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 02, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AGREE ON THE AVERAGE
LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
WITH ALL MODELS PREDICTING A VERY AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION PATTERN. AN AMPLIFIED
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY IS PREDICTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALASKA IN ALL
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AND A WEIGHTED MANUAL BLEND, WITH THE ECMWF MODEL GIVEN
THE GREATEST WEIGHT DUE TO RECENT ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDS ACROSS THE STATE OF
ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. LATE IN THE
PERIOD, A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC AND THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST PROGRESSES EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD, WITH
FALLING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS AND RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND, UNDER POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE VERY
LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES, EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
VERY LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN CONUS, INCLUDING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH GREATER
THAN 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FROM
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC, WITH POTENTIAL SNOW COVER INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO APPROACH
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO WASHINGTON.
UNDER THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONUS. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
AMONG PRECIPITATION TOOLS. UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AND AN INFLUX OF
ARCTIC AIR, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, EXCLUDING THE GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF COLD AIR
AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED GEFS AND
ECMWF FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF THE ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE 8-14 DAY AVERAGE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN OVER TIME. ALL MODELS
PREDICT A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, WITH ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. MODELS PREDICT SOME
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IN THE MANUAL BLEND. THE TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ARE PREDICTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES INCREASE LATER IN WEEK 2.
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND. THE AREA OF VERY LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASES OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN WEEK 2, UNDER EXPANDING POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN
CONUS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, EXCLUDING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, WITH REDUCED
PROBABILITIES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE WEST AND NORTH COASTS, UNDER SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. A DRIER THAN AVERAGE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEEK 2 OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS, UNDER THE
PREDICTED RIDGE, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. UNDER CONTINUED NORTHERLY
FLOW AND AN INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GULF
COAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST AND AMONG
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, OFFSET BY A CHANGING PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20230128 - 19910125 - 19990104 - 20140130 - 20150106
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940201 - 19990105 - 20150102 - 20150107 - 20140128
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 02, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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