178
FXUS02 KWBC 240609
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
109 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
VALID 12Z TUE JAN 27 2026 - 12Z SAT JAN 31 2026
..CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT INTO NEXT WEEK
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST
AND GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES
BECOME APPARENT NEAR THE WEST COAST HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES INLAND. RECENT
UKMET AND GFS/GEFS RUNS HAVE BEEN FASTER TO BRING THIS TROUGH
INLAND AND DOWNSTREAM, WHEREAS RECENT CMC/ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN
VARIABLY SLOWER. THE NEW 00 UTC UKMET HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SOLUTION ON THE SLOWER SIDE
OF THE FULL ENVELOPE. ACCORDINGLY, FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION MORE
IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPCOMING
HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. INTO NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL
GENERALLY MODERATE AND RE-SURGE NEXT WEEK, BUT MAY BE MORE
PROLONGED IN AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW/ICE COVERAGE. AMPLIFIED
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BRING ROUNDS OF WEAK TO MODERATE CLIPPER
SYSTEM SNOWS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST, BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE LAKES.
UPSTREAM, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST
BEFORE ENERGY WORKS ONSHORE LATER NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT-MODERATE
RAINFALL ALSO SET TO GRADUALLY WORK TO THE WEST COAST AND INLAND.
THIS SOLUTION DOES SET THE STAGE FOR RENEWED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATION AND UNCERTAIN STREAM PHASING LEADS TO WESTERN GULF
FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS TO MONITOR, WITH AN EYE ON NEXT WEEKEND TRACK
POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM TO/OFF THE STILL COOLED GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SOME STAYING
POWER ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY LIKELY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR HIGHS
EACH DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAILY RECORD LOWS TO BE SET.
THIS WILL BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR ANY AREAS THAT HAVE EXTENDED
POWER OUTAGES FROM THE MAJOR WEEKEND WINTER STORM. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION IS APPENDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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