408
FOUS30 KWBC 240636
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
136 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
DAY 1
VALID 12Z SAT JAN 24 2026 - 12Z SUN JAN 25 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN A SMALL PART
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MAINTAINED A SMALL PART OF THE INHERITED MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS
AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY WILL MIGRATE/PROPAGATE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AREA (VICTORIA TO
HOUSTON) IN THE 12-16Z TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE BEST COMBO OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THAT
GENERAL AREA BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES THOUGH. SURFACE-BASED STORMS
COULD EXHIBIT RIGHT-MOVING BEHAVIOR DUE TO SUPERCELLULAR WIND
PROFILES ALOFT, WITH SLOW MOVEMENT (AROUND 15-20 KNOTS) WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT (1.5+ INCH PW), SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 2-3 INCH/HR RAIN RATES. THE
SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THIS RISK IS LIMITED, WITH CONVECTION
EITHER WEAKENING OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY AROUND MIDDAY. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON
THIS SCENARIO.
FARTHER NORTHEAST, MARGINAL WAS REMOVED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND MAY
LOSE ITS ORGANIZATION SOME WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DUE TO WEAKER
BUOYANCY AND DISPLACEMENT FROM BETTER MID/UPPER FORCING UPSTREAM.
WHILE LOCAL/MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT,
DECIDED TO FOCUS THE MARGINAL/5% RISK PROBS FARTHER SOUTHWEST
WHERE THE BETTER OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
RESIDE.
COOK
DAY 2
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 25 2026 - 12Z MON JAN 26 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN APPALACIANS...
MOST GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF PERHAPS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODERATE
RAIN ACROSS THE MARGINAL RISK AREA, PRECEDING A MORE FOCUSED
LINEAR COMPLEX PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE 12Z-00Z TIMEFRAME. THE COMBINATION OF PRECEDING
RAINFALL, MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT (VIA ADVECTION
PROCESSES), AND LOCALLY SENSITIVE GROUND CONDITIONS/URBAN AREAS ARE
ALL SUGGESTIVE OF ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RUNOFF CONCERNS. THE EXTENT
OF ICING/FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ARE
LIKELY TO HINDER RUNOFF, BUT DECIDED TO KEEP THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
THERE FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY. ONLY CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST ARE A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF MARGINAL SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL ALABAMA (SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM), WHERE
MODELED CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN QPF/FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL (ALBEIT ISOLATED).
COOK
DAY 3
VALID 12Z MON JAN 26 2026 - 12Z TUE JAN 27 2026
THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT.
COOK
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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