315
FXUS02 KWBC 241942
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
VALID 12Z TUE JAN 27 2026 - 12Z SAT JAN 31 2026
..CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT INTO NEXT WEEK
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY AGREEABLE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
NEXT WEEK WHICH LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED, AT LEAST THROUGH
MID-WEEK, AS EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES HELP TO REINFORCE DEEP
UPPER- TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WITH AN UPPER-
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ALL GUIDANCE IS ALSO AGREEABLE
HANDLING A CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER MID-WEEK.
GROWING UNCERTAINTY IS TIED TO SPLITTING UPPER-LEVEL ENERGIES
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST FROM THE PACIFIC AND HELPING TO BREAK
DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SIDE WITH THE ECMWF/CMC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS, AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE
SUITE OF ECMWF AI GUIDANCE, SLOWER, ESPECIALLY INITIALLY. THE
ECMWF/CMC ARE ALSO BETTER CLUSTERED WITH REGARDS TO ONE OF THE
EMBEDDED UPPER- SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND DEVELOPING AN
UPPER-LOW WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER-TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
THEN THE NORTHEAST. THE ECMWF/CMC AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER ARCTIC HIGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. IN ITS WAKE AS WELL, FAVORING REINFORCEMENT OF
CONTINUED VERY COLD, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST USED A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/CMC GIVEN THEIR BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SUPPORT FROM OTHER AI
GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE MEANS COMPARED TO THE GFS, WITH INCREASING
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE ECENS AND CMC ENSEMBLE MEANS AS UNCERTAINTY
ON SPECIFICS GROWS WITH LEAD TIME. THIS ALSO ALIGNS WELL WITH THE
PRIOR WPC FORECAST MAINTAINING GOOD CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPCOMING
HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL MAINTAIN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. INTO NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS MAY
MODERATE SOME MID-WEEK BEFORE A RE- SURGE LATER NEXT WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, AND MAY BE MORE PROLONGED IN AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD
SNOW/ICE COVERAGE. AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BRING ROUNDS
OF WEAK TO MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM SNOWS FROM THE NORTH- CENTRAL
U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST, BUT ESPECIALLY
IN THE LEE OF THE LAKES. UPSTREAM, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL
LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST BEFORE ENERGY WORKS ONSHORE LATER NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT- MODERATE RAINFALL ALSO SET TO GRADUALLY WORK TO
THE WEST COAST AND INLAND. THIS SOLUTION DOES SET THE STAGE FOR
RENEWED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATER NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATION AND UNCERTAIN STREAM
PHASING LEADS TO WESTERN GULF FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS TO MONITOR, WITH
AN EYE ON NEXT WEEKEND TRACK POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM TO/OFF THE STILL
COOLED GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SOME STAYING
POWER ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
ALL OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY LIKELY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR HIGHS
EACH DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAILY RECORD LOWS TO BE SET.
THIS WILL BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR ANY AREAS THAT HAVE EXTENDED
POWER OUTAGES FROM THE MAJOR WINTER STORM ONGOING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
PUTNAM/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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