892
FXUS06 KWBC 242002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SAT JANUARY 24 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 03, 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW CONSISTENT WITH THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION (AO) AND THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN (PNA)
PATTERN. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE HIGHER
LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, WITH A PAIR OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
MAXIMA OF OVER 180 METERS FORECAST OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTH OF EASTERN
SIBERIA. ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES, MUCH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
SPAN ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH ATLANTIC FROM EUROPE TO THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES OVERSPREADING THE EAST COAST WESTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND THE ENTIRE GULF COAST. ANOMALOUS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
ALEUTIANS, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
THE STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS AND MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT
CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, WITH POTENTIAL SNOW COVER ADDING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF BITTERLY
COLD AIR FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN MAINE, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS
FROM THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER PREDICTED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC.
CONVERSELY, ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA SUPPORTS INCREASED
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND MUCH OF
ALASKA. HOWEVER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE
ALEUTIANS, NEAR A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDER MOSTLY EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, LARGELY DRIVEN
BY ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AS EXPANSIVE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST AREAS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH, ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF COAST,
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ALASKA
AND PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, NEAR THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER
THE PACIFIC. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR
PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND, FARTHER AWAY FROM THIS PREDICTED TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE AO/POSITIVE PNA
PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 07 2026
A STRONG NEGATIVE AO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN REMAINS FAVORED FOR WEEK-2. ABOVE
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE HIGHER
LATITUDES OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY MAXIMA OF 150
METERS AND 120 METERS ARE FORECAST NEAR DAVIS STRAIT AND NORTH OF EASTERN
SIBERIA, RESPECTIVELY. BELOW NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE EAST COAST WESTWARD TO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING
IS FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF OVER
120 METERS FORECAST WELL TO THEIR SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
(GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL SNOW COVER ADDING TO THE CHANCES OF
COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE)
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. PERSISTENT
ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS MOST OF ALASKA. HIGH
CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST FROM THE WEST COAST EASTWARD TO THE GREAT BASIN. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, LARGELY DRIVEN BY ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
EXPANSIVE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WELL INTO WEEK-2
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS FROM THE EAST COAST WESTWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT CHANCE) OF DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS, NEAR THE CENTER OF PREDICTED MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS, NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE POSTED FOR MOST OF
THE WEST, DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THIS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) IS INDICATED FOR
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, NEAR THE
PREDICTED LOCATION OF THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS. CONVERSELY, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA AHEAD OF A
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OF THE WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AND FROM THE
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, BOTH SUPPORT AN
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THEREFORE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
KAUAI AND NIIHAU ISLANDS OF HAWAII, NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AN EXPANSIVE
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR MOST OF THE BIG ISLAND, FARTHER AWAY FROM THIS TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED CONTINUED AMPLIFIED NEGATIVE AO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140130 - 20230128 - 19910125 - 20170202 - 20150105
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940202 - 20150103 - 19990105 - 20140130 - 20150108
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N B
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA N B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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