010
FXUS02 KWBC 250745
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
VALID 12Z WED JAN 28 2026 - 12Z SUN FEB 01 2026
..CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT THIS WEEK
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS MAINLY DERIVED FROM A BLEND
OF NOW SLIGHLY BETTER CLUSTERED GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS VALID FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. SWITCHED
FOCUS TO STILL REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED ENSEMBLE MEANS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AMID GROWING EMBEDDED SYSTEM FORECAST SPREAD. THIS SOLUTION
IS IN LINE WITH WPC CONTINUITY, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND
LATEST 00 UTC GUIDANCE. THESE BLENDS TEND TO ADDRESS SMALLER SCALE
SYSTEM VARIANCES CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL PREDICTABILITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
IT GENERALLY REMAINS THE CASE THAT ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPCOMING HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL
MAINTAIN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE AIRMASS MAY MODERATE SOME MID-WEEK
BEFORE A RE- SURGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, AND MAY BE MORE
PROLONGED IN AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW/ICE COVERAGE AND ENHANCED
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF WEAK TO MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM SNOWS FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST, BUT
ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE LEAST FROZEN LAKES. UPSTREAM, AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST BEFORE ENERGY
WORKS ONSHORE LATER NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT-MODERATE RAINFALL ALSO
SET TO GRADUALLY WORK TO THE WEST COAST AND INLAND AS THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE POSITION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS SOLUTION DOES
SET THE STAGE FOR RENEWED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PORTIONS
OF TEXAS LATE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATION AND UNCERTAIN
PHASING LEADS TO WESTERN GULF FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS, WITH AN EYE ON
NEXT WEEKEND TRACK POTENTIAL TO/OFF A STILL COLD GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. TO MONITOR FOR INLAND/COASTAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SOME STAYING
POWER ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY LIKELY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR HIGHS
EACH DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAILY RECORD LOWS TO BE SET.
THIS WILL BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR ANY AREAS THAT HAVE EXTENDED
POWER OUTAGES FROM THE ONGOING MAJOR WINTER STORM.
MEANWHILE, THERE IS A GROWING GUIDANCE SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN WITH A PROTRACTED MOIST
SOUTHERLY FETCH FOCUS THIS WEEK INTO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON
AND ESPECIALLY FAVORED SOUTHERN FACING OLYMPIC RANGE TERRAIN.
MULTI-INCH DAILY TOTALS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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