421
FXUS02 KWBC 251938
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
VALID 12Z WED JAN 28 2026 - 12Z SUN FEB 01 2026
..CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT THIS WEEK
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST 00/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY AGREEABLE ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN MID-NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEAN UPPER-
TROUGHING LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. AS
EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL ENERGIES BOTH FROM THE NORTH AS WELL AS TO THE
WEST FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM HELP TO REINFORCE THE UPPER-
LOW/TROUGH. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME SLOW MODERATION OF THE PERSISTENT,
WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, TO THE WEST, UPPER-RIDGING LOOKS TO QUICKLY REAMPLIFY
FOLLOWING THE EMBEDDED PASSAGE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. SYSTEM APPROACH IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE WEST COAST REMAINS COMPLEX AND
UNCERTAIN BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS A MORE FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN WITH INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF LATE NEXT WEEK
BRINGS UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES (INCLUDING WINTRY) TO THE
GULF COAST AND INLAND, WITH THE NBM GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE EXPECTATION
FOR NOW. THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST BEGINS WITH A BLEND OF THE WELL
CLUSTERED ECMWF/ECMWF AIFS, GFS, AND CMC WITH AN INCREASING
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE MEANS MID- TO LATE PERIOD AS MORE DETAILED
DIFFERENCES GROW. THE ECMWF/ECMWF AIFS ARE FAVORED TO ADD MORE
DETAIL IN THE MID- TO LATE PERIOD AS THIS GUIDANCE FELL MORE
FAVORABLY WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF THE WELL CLUSTERED MEANS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
IT GENERALLY REMAINS THE CASE THAT ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN THE WAKE OF THE UPCOMING HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL
MAINTAIN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE AIRMASS MAY MODERATE SOME MID-WEEK
BEFORE A RE- SURGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, AND MAY BE MORE
PROLONGED IN AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW/ICE COVERAGE AND ENHANCED
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF WEAK TO MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM SNOWS FROM THE NORTH-
CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST, BUT
ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE LEAST FROZEN LAKES. UPSTREAM, AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST BEFORE ENERGY
WORKS ONSHORE LATER NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT-MODERATE RAINFALL ALSO
SET TO GRADUALLY WORK TO THE WEST COAST AND INLAND AS THE MEAN
UPPER RIDGE POSITION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS SOLUTION DOES
SET THE STAGE FOR RENEWED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PORTIONS
OF TEXAS LATE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATION AND UNCERTAIN
PHASING LEADS TO WESTERN GULF FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS, WITH AN EYE ON
NEXT WEEKEND TRACK POTENTIAL TO/OFF A STILL COLD GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. TO MONITOR FOR INLAND/COASTAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SOME STAYING
POWER ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY LIKELY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR HIGHS
EACH DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAILY RECORD LOWS TO BE SET.
THIS WILL BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR ANY AREAS THAT HAVE EXTENDED
POWER OUTAGES FROM THE ONGOING MAJOR WINTER STORM.
MEANWHILE, THERE IS A GROWING GUIDANCE SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN WITH A PROTRACTED MOIST
SOUTHERLY FETCH FOCUS THIS WEEK INTO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
ESPECIALLY FAVORED SOUTHERN FACING OLYMPIC RANGE TERRAIN. WHILE THE
REGION HAS BEEN DRY, MULTI-INCH DAILY TOTALS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE WITH THE INFLUX OF
WARMER, MOIST AIR BUT SOME MODERATE SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES.
PUTNAM/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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