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FXUS06 KWBC 252006
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST SUN JANUARY 25 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 04, 2026
THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (-AO)
PEAKS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THIS HIGHLY -AO IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY FEBRUARY. THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE HIGHER
LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA FAVORS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH FROM
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) BY THE END OF JANUARY. FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS, MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THAT THE MOST ANOMALOUS COLD BECOMES
FOCUSED ACROSS OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF JANUARY.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80 PERCENT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
SOUTH TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND FLORIDA WHERE THE ECENS HAVE 5-DAY
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING MORE THAN 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION, THERE
IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF NEAR RECORD OR RECORD LOWS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON JANUARY 31 AND FEBRUARY 1. ANOMALOUS SNOW COVER EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE END OF JANUARY ALSO SUPPORTS THE LARGE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. ENHANCED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES EXTEND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND NORTH TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA TROUGH PERSISTING. THE HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY IN THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK EXISTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO VARY FROM BELOW (DAY 6) TO
ABOVE (BY DAY 8 OR 9). THEREFORE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OR A SLIGHT LEANS
TOWARDS ABOVE ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION. THE BROAD AND STRONG
500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THIS REGION ALONG THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
A MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48 STATES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A DRY END TO JANUARY AND
START TO FEBRUARY DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND LARGE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING
THIS 5-DAY PERIOD. BASED ON A SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF THE GEFS AND
ECENS REFORECASTS, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE LARGEST (50 TO
70 PERCENT) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS SLIGHTLY TILT THE OUTLOOK TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH DAKOTA, WHILE THE ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
RELATED TO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND PARTS OF WASHINGTON.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE AGREE ON A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH THE
HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WOULD LEAD
TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. PREDICTED OFFSHORE FLOW FAVORS
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALASKA AND ALSO ELEVATES
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH SLOPE.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, LARGE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE
FORECAST FOR HAWAII. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND, WHILE THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK LEANS ON THE WETTER SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 08 2026
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE AO PERSISTING INTO EARLY FEBRUARY. THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WITH
A CONTINUED -AO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION SHIFTING
EASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC. THE -AO WITH CONTINUED ARCTIC HIGHS SHIFTING SOUTH
FROM CANADA FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60 PERCENT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH TO FLORIDA. MJO
TEMPERATURE COMPOSITES WERE CONSIDERED IN HEDGING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MODEL
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. ALSO, THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE, INITIALLY OVER
THE ROCKIES, IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST AND
BUILD NORTH TO ALASKA. THIS RETROGRESSION OF THE 500-HPA RIDGE COULD EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO ARCTIC AIR AND ANOMALOUS COLD RETURNING TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY THE END OF WEEK-2, AFTER A BRIEF THAW EXPECTED AT
THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. HOWEVER, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 11 (FEB 5) WHICH RESULTS IN THE
ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT,
FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. A LACK
OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FURTHER INCREASES THE ABOVE PROBABILITIES
FOR THIS REGION.
EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH THE
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE UPSTREAM FAVORS A DRY PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48
STATES DURING EARLY FEBRUARY. THE LARGEST BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES (50-60 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST FROM ST LOUIS TO NASHVILLE (WELL
AWAY FROM ANY EAST COAST STORMINESS) AND THE INTERIOR WEST (UNDERNEATH THE
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT). ALTHOUGH BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ALONG THE EAST COAST, PROBABILITIES WERE REDUCED TO ONLY 33-40 PERCENT FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC NORTH TO NEW ENGLAND AS RECENT ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
HAVE DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE ANALOG
TOOL FROM THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND HAS A STRONG DRY SIGNAL EVEN FOR THE
EAST COAST. ONE OR MORE NORTHERN (SOUTHERN) STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESULTED
IN ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND
NORTH DAKOTA (RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST).
THE DEEP 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTHERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO
RESULT IN ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF ALASKA. AS THE
WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD, A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA LATER IN WEEK-2. SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
PREDICTED NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TILTS THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TOWARDS THE
COLDER SIDE FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH SLOPE.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN A RETROGRADING PATTERN
ESPECIALLY LATER IN WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140130 - 20230129 - 20150105 - 20170202 - 19910125
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140130 - 20150106 - 19890207 - 19940202 - 19990105
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA N B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N N
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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