524
FXUS02 KWBC 261958
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
VALID 12Z THU JAN 29 2026 - 12Z MON FEB 02 2026
..CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT THIS WEEK
..POTENTIAL EAST COASTAL STORM THREAT NEXT WEEKEND
..EMERGING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER FOR NORTHWEST WASHINGTON/OLYMPICS
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST 00Z/06Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY AGREEABLE BUT
WITH IMPORTANT TRENDS TO MONITOR, SPECIFICALLY WITH REGARDS TO
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE
CENTRAL-EASTERN UPPER-TROUGHING AND WESTERN UPPER-RIDGE PATTERN
LOOKS TO STAY ANCHORED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE UPPER-
RIDGE FORECAST TO RE-AMPLIFY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EMBEDDED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER-ENERGY THROUGH THE WEST BEFORE DIVING SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH. MEANWHILE, AS ONE EMBEDDED UPPER-
LOW/SURFACE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC,
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AS
WELL, HELPING TO REINFORCE THE UPPER-TROUGH AND LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER-LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COASTAL LOW AS
THE ENERGY PROGRESSES EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. THE NOTABLE
TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CMC IS
TOWARDS A STRONGER UPPER-LOW/MUCH DEEPER COASTAL LOW, WITH THE
INCREASING POTENTIAL OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND WIND IMPACTS FOR
THE EAST COAST. THE ECMWF AIFS AND SUITE OF EXPERIMENTAL EC AI
GUIDANCE ALL SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION, WITH THE MEANS SIGNALING MORE
BROADLY FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM AS WELL. THE INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE
REMAINED IN AGREEMENT, WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING AN EVEN
MORE INTENSE LOW. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE NOTABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OFF THE COAST
NOT SURPRISINGLY LEAD TO A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS. FOR NOW, THE GREATEST CONSENSUS AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE IS FOR COASTAL AREAS AND POSSIBLY FURTHER INLAND ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC. THE UPDATED WPC QPF FORECAST FAVORED
INCREASING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MORE BROADLY UP THE COAST
COMPARED TO THE NBM USING THE ECENS MEAN WHILE CONTINUING TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH TIME.
ELSEWHERE, WHILE THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
AND PATH OF UPSTREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM(S) APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WEST OF THE UPPER-RIDGE FAVOR INCREASED MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION
IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN. THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ADDITIONAL CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST USED A COMPOSITE
BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC GUIDANCE WHICH WERE ALL WELL CLUSTERED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, WITH AN INCREASING CONTRIBUTION FROM
THE ECENS MEAN WHICH TENDED TO BEST CAPTURE THE SPREAD OF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, PARTICULARLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL
LOW. A 45% COMBINATION OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WERE USED FOR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO HELP ACCOUNT FOR GROWING
DIFFERENCES IN UPSTREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION AND THE CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING AND ADDITIONAL SURGES IN THE
WAKE OF THE ONGOING HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL MAINTAIN
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS
WEEK. THE AIRMASS MAY BE MORE PROLONGED IN AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD
SNOW/ICE COVERAGE AND ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. AMPLIFIED MEAN
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BRING ROUNDS OF WEAK TO MODERATE CLIPPER
SYSTEM SNOWS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST, BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF THE LAKES.
UPSTREAM, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST
BEFORE ENERGY WORKS ONSHORE LATER WEEK WITH RAINFALL ALSO SET TO
GRADUALLY WORK TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND VICINITY/INLAND AS THE
MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITION GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. IN THIS
PATTERN THERE IS LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR DOWNSTREAM WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO PARTS OF TEXAS LATE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATION LEADS INTO WESTERN GULF FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS.
THERE IS ALSO EYES ON A POSSIBLY IMPACTFUL COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND ALONG THE STILL COLD EASTERN SEABOARD. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH IMPACTS ONSHORE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME
IS FOR HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS
COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COASTAL REGIONS IN BETWEEN WOULD BE
THE NEXT MOST LIKELY, WITH THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND INLAND NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE LOW
SUGGESTS GUSTY WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE SOME STAYING
POWER ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
THE WEEK, WITH AREAS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY LIKELY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR HIGHS
EACH DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAILY RECORD LOWS TO BE SET.
THIS WILL BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR ANY AREAS THAT HAVE EXTENDED
POWER OUTAGES FROM THE ONGOING MAJOR WINTER STORM.
MEANWHILE, THERE REMAINS A GUIDANCE SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN WITH A PROTRACTED MOIST
SOUTHERLY FETCH FOCUS LATER THIS WEEK INTO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
ESPECIALLY FAVORED SOUTHERN FACING OLYMPIC RANGE TERRAIN. WHILE
THE REGION HAS BEEN DRY, MULTI-INCH DAILY TOTALS MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO)
MARGINAL THREAT AREAS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FROM DAY 3/THURSDAY
THROUGH DAY 5/SATURDAY AFTER LOCAL WFO COLLABORATION. SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE WITH THE INFLUX OF WARMER, MOIST AIR, WITH HEAVIER SNOWS
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES.
PUTNAM/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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