298
FXUS06 KWBC 262002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 26 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 05 2026
THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO)
PEAKS EARLY THIS WEEK BUT THIS HIGHLY -AO IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY FEBRUARY. THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE HIGHER
LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA FAVOR ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH FROM CANADA
INTO THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) BY THE END OF JANUARY. FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS, MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT THAT THE MOST ANOMALOUS COLD BECOMES FOCUSED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST BY THE BEGINNING OF
FEBRUARY. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70 PERCENT FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND FLORIDA WHERE THE ECENS HAVE
5-DAY TEMPERATURES AVERAGING MORE THAN 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL. IN ADDITION,
THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF NEAR RECORD OR RECORD LOWS FOR THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC ON FEBRUARY 1 AND 2. ANOMALOUS SNOW COVER LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO FEBRUARY ALSO SUPPORTS THE LARGE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. ENHANCED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES EXTEND WEST TO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS
AND NORTH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA TROUGH
PERSISTING. THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK EXISTS
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO VARY FROM BELOW (DAY
6) TO ABOVE (BY DAY 8 OR 9). THEREFORE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OR A SLIGHT
LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION. THE BROAD AND STRONG
500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. DUE TO EXCELLENT
MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES EXCEED
80 PERCENT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA.
A MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48 STATES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A DRY START TO FEBRUARY
DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS 5-DAY
PERIOD. BASED ON A SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF THE GEFS AND ECENS
REFORECASTS, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE LARGEST (50 TO 70
PERCENT) ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN. THE HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY IN THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK EXISTS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
NORTH TO NEW ENGLAND DUE TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
COASTAL LOW AFFECTING THESE AREAS ON DAYS 6 AND 7 (FEB 1 AND 2). GIVEN THE
RECENT MODEL TREND, THE UNCALIBRATED ECENS WAS PREFERRED WITH NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR AREAS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, NORTHEAST, AND NEW ENGLAND
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE ANALOG TOOL DERIVED FROM THE 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND ALSO
SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLIGHTLY TILT THE
OUTLOOK TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHILE THE ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS ARE
RELATED TO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE AGREE ON A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS WITH THE
HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WOULD LEAD
TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, LARGE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE
FORECAST FOR HAWAII. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
BIG ISLAND, WHILE THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK LEANS ON THE WETTER SIDE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY BUT CONFIDENCE REDUCED BY UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PRECIPITATION (TEMPERATURE) OUTLOOK FOR THE EAST COAST (MIDWEST).
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 09 2026
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE AO PERSISTING INTO EARLY FEBRUARY. AFTER A SLIGHT EASING OF THE
HIGHLY -AO AT THE END OF JANUARY, THE GEFS DEPICTS IT INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE
ONCE AGAIN TO -5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BY THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THE HIGH
LATITUDE BLOCKING WITH A CONTINUED -AO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION PROPAGATING EASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC. THE -AO WITH ADDITIONAL
ARCTIC HIGHS SHIFTING SOUTH FROM CANADA FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS
THE ENHANCED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. MJO TEMPERATURE COMPOSITES
WERE CONSIDERED IN HEDGING ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALSO, THE STRONG 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTH TO ALASKA LATER IN WEEK-2. THIS BUILDING 500-HPA
RIDGE COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO ARCTIC AIR AND ANOMALOUS COLD RETURNING TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF WEEK-2, AFTER A BRIEF THAW EXPECTED AT
THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. HOWEVER, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY IN WEEK-2 WHICH RESULTS IN FAVORING NEAR TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT, FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS. A LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FURTHER
INCREASES THE ABOVE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION.
A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH THE
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE UPSTREAM ALONG THE WEST COAST FAVORS A DRY PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING EARLY FEBRUARY. THE LARGEST BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES (50-60 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT LESS
THAN 0.5 INCH FROM WESTERN OREGON TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE WEEK-2
PERIOD WHICH IS VERY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE THE GEFS MODEL TRENDED
WETTER TODAY, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WERE REDUCED ACROSS
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH ANY EAST COAST STORMINESS ON DAYS 6 AND 7 IS FORECAST TO TIME OFF BY
THE BEGINNING OF WEEK-2, THE OUTLOOK ONLY LEANS SLIGHTLY ON THE DRIER SIDE AS
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH COULD SPAWN ADDITIONAL COASTAL LOWS IN
EARLY FEBRUARY. ONE OR MORE NORTHERN (SOUTHERN) STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
RESULTS IN ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA (RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST).
THE DEEP 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTHERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO
RESULT IN ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA. AS THE 500-HPA RIDGE
AMPLIFIES NORTH TO ALASKA LATER IN WEEK-2, A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA BY THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK ALONG THE EAST COAST AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140130 - 20140205 - 20230129 - 20170202 - 20240117
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140130 - 20150106 - 19940202 - 19890208 - 20230128
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 05 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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