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FXCA20 KWBC 262058
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 JANUARY 2026 AT 1900 UTC:
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECASTED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, GUATEMALA, BELIZE AND HONDURAS AS
CONDITIONS, AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION,
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE, OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND THE PRESENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL JETS IS ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.
STARTING TODAY INTO TUESDAY, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO, HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAN AFFECT THE AREA AND TOTALS
EXCEEDING 50MM ARE FORECASTED PARTICULARLY FOR CHIAPAS AND
PORTIONS OF OAXACA, TABASCO AND VERACRUZ. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA TODAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH
TOTALS REACHING 20-45MM
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS, ACCUMULATIONS
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 50-100MM, WHILE OVER EASTERN HONDURAS,
AND PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND GUATEMALA 20-35MM. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION, AND ADDITIONAL
40-80MM OF RAINFALL ARE FORECASTED FOR HONDURAS.
OVER THE NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA AND PANAMA MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN DRIVER OF RAINFALL BEING
DIURNAL HEATING, MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
RELATIVELY LOW RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITABLE WATER, AND THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEING DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN
OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE IN THE REGION. FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE BAHAMAS WITH
TOTALS FORECASTED AROUND 20-35MM AS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES IN THE AREA SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
OVER THE TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA A FEW REGIONS OF INTEREST FROM
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR, WHERE A TROUGH AT LOW-LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE REGION. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REMAINING RELATIVELY WEAK, ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 40MM. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY IS THE GUIANAS WHERE A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE REGION.RAINFALL
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE AMAZON REGION OF
BRAZIL AND PERU WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS CONVERGING AND AND
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER PERU, AS A SHORTWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE REGION AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS EXPECTED, SUPPORTING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION. CONDITIONS
AT MID AND UPPER-LEVELS WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER PERU AND
ECUADOR FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND TOTAL PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AROUND 40-80MM. DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND A
DRYING TREND OVER VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECASTED DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
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