319
FXUS02 KWBC 270824
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
324 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
VALID 12Z FRI JAN 30 2026 - 12Z TUE FEB 03 2026
..SIGNIFICANT EAST COASTAL WINTER STORM THREAT THIS WEEKEND
..CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT INTO NEXT WEEK
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS GENERALLY AGREEABLE OVERALL ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 AND SPECIFICALLY WITH REGARDS TO IMPACTFUL COASTAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE NOTABLE
RECENT TREND ACROSS THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CMC IS TOWARDS A STRONGER
UPPER-LOW/MUCH DEEPER COASTAL LOW, WITH THE INCREASING POTENTIAL OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND WIND/WAVE IMPACTS FOR THE EAST COAST. THE
ECMWF AIFS AND AI GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER, DESPITE
THE NOTABLE AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OFF THE COAST NOT SURPRISINGLY LEAD TO A
LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. FOR
NOW, THE GREATEST CONSENSUS AMONGST THE GUIDANCE IS FOR COASTAL
AREAS AND POSSIBLY FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
ELSEWHERE, WHILE THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
AND PATH OF UPSTREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM(S) APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WEST OF THE UPPER-RIDGE FAVOR MODERATE MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION
IN AN INITIALLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER PATTERN. THE GUIDANCE
IS ALSO IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ADDITIONAL CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, THE WPC FORECAST SUITE WAS MAINLY DERIVED FROM A
COMPOSITE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION MOST IN LINE WITH THE ECENS
MEAN ALONG WITH WPC CONTINUITY AND THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE ONGOING SETTLING OF COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL
SURGES IN THE WAKE OF THE HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL MAINTAIN
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK AS PER THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. THE AIRMASS
MAY BE MORE PROLONGED IN AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW/ICE COVERAGE
AND ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT
WILL MEANWHILE BRING ROUNDS OF WEAK TO MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM
SNOWS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO THE GREAT LAKES.
IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY COLD PATTERN, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION INTO THE GULF COAST STATES LATE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATION LEADS INTO NORTHERN GULF FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS. WAVE
PROGRESSION DOWNSTREAM AND TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT ALOFT IS
NOW INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO SET THE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT EASTERN SEABOARD COASTAL WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY
HAS IMPROVED BUT REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
IMPACTS THE ONSHORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOCUS AND FOOTPRINT. HOWEVER,
THE GROWING CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME IS FOR HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL
FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH COASTAL SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LOW SUGGESTS HIGH
WINDS/WAVES AND COASTAL FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE, LINGERING SOUTHERLY PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH RIDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFIED WEST COAST MEAN UPPER RIDGE
FAVORS A WET PATTERN FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS PERIOD, BUT NO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK THREAT AREAS REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO A
LOWERING GUIDANCE SIGNAL OVER TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARMER, MOIST AIR, WITH HEAVIER SNOWS POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES. ENERGY SPILLNG OVER THE RIDGE
MAY FUEL MODEST SNOW CHANCES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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