993
FXCA20 KWBC 271939
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 26 JANUARY 2026 AT 1900 UTC:
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF
OF HONDURAS, AFFECTING THE BAY ISLANDS AND REACHING THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. THIS HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS, WHICH,
COMBINED WITH STRONG FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE, IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG RAINFALL.
STARTING TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY, TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 50MM OVER EASTERN GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. HIGHER TOTALS,
AROUND 50-100MM, ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS, AND ISOLATED
TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 100MM, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGH
ELEVATIONS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTH AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE, LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BRINGING HIGH
PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS. AN ADDITIONAL 50-100MM ARE
FORECASTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM REACHES NICARAGUA, THIS WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ON THE EASTERN COAST WITH TOTALS
AROUND 35MM AND ISOLATED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY ON THE
COAST. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND
NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA, RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION. AN
ADDITIONAL 20-35MM IS FORECASTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A REMNANT TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
RAINFALL OVER THE REGION, ALTHOUGH TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 25MM FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN OTHER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA, INCLUDING NICARAGUA AND PANAMA, EASTERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN, WHICH, COMBINED WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS. TOTALS
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORT AT MID- AND
UPPER-LEVELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS OVER THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, ENHANCING PRECIPITATION. FROM
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 -
20MM. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY IN THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY,
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH,
REFLECTED AT MID-LEVELS, PROPAGATES EAST. A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE PROJECTED TO BE
AROUND 20-35MM. AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERNMOST ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE ISLANDS
AND ADVECTING HIGH VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. TOTAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 20-25 MM. OVERALL,
RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH DOMINATES
OVER THE CARIBBEAN, INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION,
AND LIMITED PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EVERY DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS, LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA WILL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC, PRODUCING SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BEING RELATIVELY WEAK, DAILY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 35MM. MOST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE AMAZON
REGION OF BRAZIL AND PERU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE
CONVERGING IN THAT ZONE, AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 60MM FROM TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED,
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE AMAZON REGION OF
BRAZIL, PERU AND PORTIONS OF ECUADOR. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WITH A SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER ECUADOR IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
FOR ECUADOR AND PERU, PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND
40-80MM, WHILE IN BRAZIL 30-60MM OF RAINFALL ARE FORECASTED.
ECUADOR AND PORTIONS OF PERU AND THE AMAZON REGION IN BRAZIL WILL
CONTINUE TO RECEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS AND MOISTURE
CONVERGING IN THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 40-80MM IS LIKELY OVER PERU
AND ECUADOR.
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
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