184
FXUS06 KWBC 272002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 27 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 06 2026
THE GEFS AND ECENS INDICATE THE NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO)
IS NOW PEAKING BUT THIS HIGHLY -AO IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY FEBRUARY. REMARKABLY, THE GEFS MAINTAINS A -AO BETWEEN -5 TO -3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WHICH WOULD FAVOR A PROLONGED DURATION OF
ANOMALOUS COLD FOR THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). THE POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA ARE LIKELY TO FORCE
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH TO SHIFT SOUTH FROM CANADA TO THE GULF COAST BY THE
BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.
ON FEBRUARY 2 AND 3, THE MOST ANOMALOUS COLD IS FORECAST TO BECOME FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
EXCEED 60 PERCENT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA WHERE THE ECENS HAS 5-DAY TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR 10 DEGREES F
BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF NEAR RECORD OR RECORD LOWS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST ON FEBRUARY 2. ANOMALOUS SNOW COVER LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CONUS HEADING INTO FEBRUARY ALSO SUPPORTS THE LARGE BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. ENHANCED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
EXTEND WEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTH TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA TROUGH PERSISTING. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT THE ANOMALOUS COLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS MODERATES ON DAYS 9
AND 10 (FEB 5 AND 6). THE BROAD AND STRONG 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DUE TO EXCELLENT MODEL
AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80
PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, NORTHERN ROCKIES, PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
AND PARTS OF CALIFORNIA.
A MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48 STATES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A RELATIVELY DRY START TO
FEBRUARY DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THIS 5-DAY PERIOD.
BASED ON A SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECASTS,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE LARGEST (50 TO 60 PERCENT) ACROSS
A LARGE AREA OF THE WEST INCLUDING MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN,
AND CALIFORNIA. ANY EAST COAST STORMINESS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO TIME OFF
BY DAY 6, FEBRUARY 2, EXCEPT PERHAPS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. THE
GEFS AND CMCE ARE THE WETTEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH MORE THAN ONE INCH OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST. A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITHIN THE POLAR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SLIGHTLY TILTS
THE OUTLOOK TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DUE TO AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INTERACT ALONG WITH A WET TREND IN THE GEFS AND CMCE
MODELS, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND MORE OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE AGREE ON A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND AN
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WOULD
LEAD TO ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, LARGE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE
FORECAST FOR HAWAII. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND, WHILE THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK LEANS ON THE WETTER SIDE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 10 2026
THE GEFS, ECENS AND CMCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
WEEK-2, BUT THE CMCE BEGINS TO DIFFER WITH THE GEFS AND ECENS BY MID-FEBRUARY.
THE CMCE RETROGRADES THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC WHICH LEADS TO A DECREASE (INCREASE) IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS (SOUTHEAST). IN CONTRAST TO THE CMCE MODEL
SOLUTION, THE GEFS AND ECENS MAINTAIN AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING SOUTH TO FLORIDA
THROUGHOUT WEEK-2. REGARDLESS OF HOW EXACTLY THE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES FROM
EARLY TO MID-FEBRUARY, ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THIS 7-DAY PERIOD. GIVEN THE GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES EXCEED
50 PERCENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH A 60 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND FLORIDA. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT, FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEST COAST
TO THE GREAT PLAINS. A LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FURTHER
INCREASES THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES TO MORE THAN 80 PERCENT
FOR THIS REGION. BASED ON THE ANALOG TOOL DERIVED FROM THE MANUAL 500-HPA
HEIGHT BLEND AND WITH A PREDICTED RETROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM 500-HPA RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE WEST COAST, THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HEDGED ON THE COLDER
SIDE FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE INCREASING
SIGNS THAT BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID-FEBRUARY FOLLOWING A BRIEF THAW TO START THE
MONTH.
ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH THE
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE UPSTREAM ALONG THE WEST COAST FAVORS A DRY PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 STATES DURING EARLY FEBRUARY. THE LARGEST BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES (50-60 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE
WEST COAST. ONE OR MORE NORTHERN (SOUTHERN) STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RESULTS IN
ELEVATED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY (RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST). THE WEEK-2
OUTLOOK ONLY LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE DRIER SIDE (33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE)
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM MAY INTERACT EARLY IN WEEK-2 AND THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE
500-HPA TROUGH MAY SPAWN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST.
THE 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN
ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA. AS THE 500-HPA RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD DURING WEEK-2, A DRYING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA BY THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
BASED ON THE GEFS AND ECENS, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII. POSITIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ALSO SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240117 - 20140130 - 20140205 - 20210209 - 20170202
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140130 - 20150106 - 20170202 - 20140204 - 19940202
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 02 - 06 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE A B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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