182
FXUS02 KWBC 280800
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026
VALID 12Z SAT JAN 31 2026 - 12Z WED FEB 04 2026
..SIGNIFICANT EAST COASTAL WINTER STORM THREAT THIS WEEKEND
..CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HAZARDOUS COLD THREAT INTO NEXT WEEK
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE OVERALL REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD, BUT AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY REMAIN. THE MAIN AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS UP/OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND WHERE RAPID
DEEP CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM GENESIS IS
LIKELY, BUT RECENT GFS/GEFS RUNS CONTINUE TO LEAD A CAMP OF
FARTHER INLAND AND IMPACTFUL QPF/WINTRY SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE. A BLEND OF MODELS, ENSEMBLE MEANS AND MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE OFFERS GOOD WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY WITHOUT TOO
STRONGLY FAVORING ANY SOLUTION WITHOUT IMO MUCH COMPELLING REASON.
THE NBM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO CAPTURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
DEVELOPS DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND OVERALL WITH
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS DIGGING UPSTREAM THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES, SO A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS USED TO BUMP UP THE NBM QPF FOOTPRINT IN THOSE AREAS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
FRIGID SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REPLENTISHED WITH RENEWED SURGES
TO MAINTAIN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED RECORD
VALUES POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE AIRMASS MAY BE MORE PROLONGED IN AREAS WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW/ICE COVERAGE AND ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING.
AMPLIFIED MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL ALSO MEANWHILE BRING ROUNDS OF
WEAK TO MODERATE CLIPPER SYSTEM SNOWS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
TO THE GREAT LAKES.
IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY COLD PATTERN, GULF FRONTAL WAVE GENESIS AND
PROGRESSION DOWNSTREAM WITH AMPLE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT
ALOFT REMAINS LIKELY TO SET THE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT EASTERN SEABOARD COASTAL WINTER STORM FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OFF THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE EXACT
EMPHASIS OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LEAD BAROCLINIC ZONE/STORM TRACK
CAMPS STILL ON THE TABLE WILL IMPACT THE EXTENT OF ONSHORE WINTRY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOCUS AND OVERALL FOOTPRINT. HOWEVER, THE
ONGOING CONSENSUS IS FOR A HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FOCUS FROM THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH COASTAL
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE DEEP
LOW ALSO SUPPORTS HIGH WINDS/WAVES AND COASTAL FLOODING THREATS.
MEANWHILE, LINGERING SOUTHERLY PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH RIDING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFIED WEST COAST MEAN UPPER RIDGE
FAVORS SOME LINGERING WET PERIODS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT
NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK THREAT AREAS ARE IN PLACE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL RISE WITH THE INFLUX OF WARMER, MOIST AIR, WITH HEAVIER
SNOWS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES. ENERGY
SPILLNG OVER THE RIDGE MAY FUEL MODEST SNOW CHANCES TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH DOWNSTREAM MODERATE FRONTAL/LOW GENESIS.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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