355
FXUS06 KWBC 282001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED JANUARY 28 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 07 2026
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL, 500 HPA, HEIGHT PATTERN REMAINS FAVORED BY THE GEFS,
ECENS, AND CMCE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE
WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING NORTH
INTO ALASKA. UPSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC,
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A BROAD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL ARE OVER THE
COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70%.
STRONGLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
SPREADING INTO MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR NORMAL IS
FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
STRONGLY FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE STATE WITH THE STRONGEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, EXCEEDING 80%, DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE MAIN ISLANDS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE
BIG ISLAND.
A MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48 STATES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A RELATIVELY DRY START TO
FEBRUARY DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE GULF COAST DURING THIS 5-DAY PERIOD.
BASED ON A SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECASTS,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE LARGEST (60 TO 70 PERCENT) ACROSS
A LARGE AREA OF THE WEST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
ANY EAST COAST STORMINESS THIS WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO TIME OFF BY DAY 6.
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON DEPICTING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WHERE ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. THE GEFS AND CMCE ARE THE WETTEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH MORE THAN THREE QUARTERS OF ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITHIN
THE POLAR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SLIGHTLY TILTS THE OUTLOOK TOWARDS THE WETTER
SIDE FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DUE TO AN INCREASING CHANCE
THAT THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
INTERACT ALONG WITH A WET TREND IN THE GEFS AND CMCE MODELS, NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO ALASKA BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 05 - 11 2026
THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN THE 6-10 DAY AND
8-14 DAY PERIOD AS FORECAST BY THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER, THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC AND RIDGE OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA ARE NOTICEABLY LESS AMPLIFIED RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND
YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE. THIS INCREASES THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL
HEIGHT PATTERN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
SPAGHETTI MODEL PLOTS SHOW A NUMBER OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM
TROUGHING TO CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE REGION.
AS WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW
NORMAL ARE OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WITH PROBABILITIES
EXCEEDING 70%. TOOLS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. STRONGLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MIDDLE
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR NORMAL IS FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN
ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE STATE.
IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE MAIN ISLANDS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE BIG ISLAND.
AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS LEADS TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
BEING FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48. IN THE WEST, THERE IS INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY AS THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND HOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE FLOW INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. FOR NOW, BELOW-NORMAL REMAINS FAVORED BUT WITH REDUCED
PROBABILITIES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONG CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AS WELL, CONSISTENT WITH A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS. MODELS CONTINUE
TO PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNERS INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SEPARATELY FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED OVER
MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN HAWAII, TOOLS APPEAR TO BE
SUGGESTING INCREASED CHANCES FOR KONA LOW FORMATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEEDING 50% OVER WESTERN HAWAII AND ABOVE NORMAL
FAVORED ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS EARLY BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240117 - 20140129 - 20210209 - 19960202 - 20140207
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20140130 - 20240117 - 20150107 - 20140206 - 20210209
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE N B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 05 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page