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FXCA20 KWBC 282055
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 28 JANUARY 2026 AT 1900 UTC:
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED FROM
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS BY FAVORING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AN ACCUMULATION FROM 50-100MM IS EXPECTED
FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND LOWER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EASTERN NICARAGUA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RECEIVE SHOWERS DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FAVORING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TOWARDS THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH LOWER VALUES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHES THE AREA.
SOME RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR COSTA RICA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE LINKED TO THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE REGION AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA BUT THE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS BECOMES
LESS FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
OVER MEXICO, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TODAY INTO THURSDAY, SOME SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED OVER VERACRUZ WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR LIGHT
RAINFALL. HOWEVER, LIMITED PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 20MM. LESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS DOMINATING
OVER THE REGION. AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
REGION, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER VERACRUZ.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15-25MM. IN GENERAL, THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A HIGH AT MID- AND
UPPER-LEVELS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE INHIBITED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS FOR
THE BAHAMAS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD, ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AN
ENHANCEMENT IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE BAHAMAS IS
ANTICIPATED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, REFLECTED AT MID-LEVELS,
PROPAGATES EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN CUBA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND IN HISPANIOLA
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE REST OF THE REGION, STABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS AND
LIGHT RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION, LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHS, DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS. FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER OVER 50MM INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
WHICH LONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH TOTALS FORECASTED TO BE AROUND
25-50MM.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC,
RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS OVER THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE
COAST, THEREFORE THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND
35MM THROUGH FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS BECAUSE
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE WILL INCREASE.
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER ECUADOR AND PERU, AND
CENTRAL-WEST BRAZIL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE, AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WITH A SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER ECUADOR. ECUADOR AND PORTIONS OF PERU AND THE AMAZON
REGION IN BRAZIL WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS AND MOISTURE CONVERGING IN THE AREA. AN
ADDITIONAL 40-80MM IS LIKELY OVER PERU AND ECUADOR. FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL-WEST BRAZIL, WITH TOTALS AROUND 30-60MM. THE MAIN DRIVERS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
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