874
FXUS06 KWBC 292002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU JANUARY 29 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 08 2026
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL, 500-HPA, HEIGHT PATTERN REMAINS FAVORED BY THE GEFS,
ECENS, AND CMCE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TODAY. A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE
WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING NORTH
INTO ALASKA. UPSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ARE FORECAST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC,
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A BROAD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL ARE OVER THE
COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70%.
STRONGLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
SPREADING INTO MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR NORMAL IS
FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
STRONGLY FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE STATE WITH THE STRONGEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, EXCEEDING 80%, DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE MAIN ISLANDS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THE
BIG ISLAND.
A MAJORITY OF THE LOWER 48 STATES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A RELATIVELY DRY START TO
FEBRUARY DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US DURING THIS 5-DAY PERIOD. BASED ON A
SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION OF THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECASTS, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE LARGEST (60 TO 70 PERCENT) ACROSS A LARGE AREA
OF THE WEST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CONVERSELY,
AREAS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE LIMITED ACROSS THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN CONUS BRINGS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. YESTERDAY'S FORECAST HAD BROADER CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
HOWEVER, MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOW IN DAYS 1-5 AND A SHARPLY DRIER
FORECAST IS FAVORED TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, WITHIN THE POLAR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SLIGHTLY TILTS THE OUTLOOK
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO ALASKA BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF THE STATE. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS STRONGLY FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 06 - 12 2026
IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT A PATTERN CHANGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC MAY OCCUR DURING THE WEEK-2 TIME PERIOD. THE
PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA (INCLUDING THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA)
RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER, THESE FEATURES BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK-2. THE ECENS BASED TOOLS EVEN BEGIN TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GEFS,
ECENS, AND CMCE ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING WEEK-2
FORECAST AND LOW CONFIDENCE WITH A VAST NUMBER OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE DEFINING FEATURES OVER THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2 REMAINS THE
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WEST EARLY IN WEEK-2 AND MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
EAST PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW
NORMAL ARE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING
70%. TOOLS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. STRONGLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND INTO MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING FAVORED EARLY IN WEEK-2. IN ALASKA,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE STATE. IN
HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE MAIN ISLANDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ENHANCES CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS CONSISTENT AMONGST A
VARIETY OF STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. IN THE WEST, THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION REGIME. HOWEVER,
MID-LEVEL RIDGING EARLY IN WEEK-2 WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE,
A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL REMAINS FAVORED FOR WEEK-2. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS
FORECAST CORRESPONDING TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. MEANWHILE,
A CUT OFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS BEING FORECAST BY MANY OF THE TOOLS TO
UNDERCUT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNERS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WOULD BRING
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FURTHER INTO PARTS OF CALIFORNIA BUT THERE IS NOT AS
MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE RAW GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME AND NEAR NORMAL IS FAVORED. IN
ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED OVER MOST AREAS WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN WEEK-2. IN HAWAII, TOOLS APPEAR
TO BE SUGGESTING INCREASED CHANCES FOR KONA LOW FORMATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEEDING 50% OVER MUCH OF HAWAII EXCLUDING THE BIG
ISLAND WHERE 40-50% CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS EARLY BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240117 - 20070206 - 20210210 - 20100129 - 20140128
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20240117 - 20140129 - 20210209 - 20070205 - 19950210
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 04 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A B MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 06 - 12 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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