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FXCA20 KWBC 292117
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
417 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 29 JANUARY 2026 AT 2000 UTC:
THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN:
RAINFALL ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE LINKED TO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE BAHAMAS, CUBA, AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE BAHAMAS, NORTHERN CUBA, AND HISPANIOLA,
FAVORING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATER, COASTAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.
FORECASTED TOTALS FOR THE BAHAMAS ARE 15 - 25MM, WHILE
NORTHEASTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN HISPANIOLA WILL SEE QUANTITIES
REMAIN CLOSER TO 20MM OR BELOW, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER VALUES. WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED OVER THE BAHAMAS; WITH PERSISTING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AN ADDITIONAL 35MM CAN BE EXPECTED. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES OVER CUBA, IT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN OF THUNDERSTORMS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE WEEKEND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A TROUGH
WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH PWAT VALUES
EXCEEDING 50MM. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH 30MM THROUGH
FRIDAY, INCREASING SATURDAY WITH PEAK TOTALS REACHING 45MM. FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS CONVERGE, PULLING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN. TOTALS
IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 45MM.
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA:
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW OVER
NORTHERN HONDURAS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER,
TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY, DRIER AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY TO THE
REGION, LIMITING TOTALS. MOST PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
OCCUR OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. THE
MAIN DRIVER IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TOWARD THE NICARAGUAN
COAST THAT HAS AFFECTED CENTRAL AMERICA ALL WEEK. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN OBSERVED IN RECENT DAYS AND REMAIN MAINLY
COASTAL.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH VERACRUZ ON FRIDAY, INCREASING
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST, WITH
FORECASTED ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 - 35MM. PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
OVER VERACRUZ AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE
TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT, IT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA WITH TOTALS AROUND 35MM.
ADDITIONALLY, A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN MEXICO, PARTICULARLY OVER GUERRERO, FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NICARAGUA IS EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTED INTO COSTA RICA, INCREASING
RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE
OVER COSTA RICA AS A COLD FRONT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES, AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TO SUPPORT ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA:
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IS
ANTICIPATED TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY WILL OCCUR OVER ECUADOR AND PORTIONS
OF PERU WHERE MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED, AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER ECUADOR. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO BE ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
BOLIVIAN HIGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER VENEZUELA.
ANOTHER REGION EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE MAXIMUM RAINFALL IS
CENTRAL-WEST BRAZIL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLOMBIA, WHERE A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH AND CONVERGING WINDS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DUE TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND A RISE IN
AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER, WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 25 - 50MM. IN
CENTRAL-WEST BRAZIL, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL COMBINE
WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO FAVOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER
COLOMBIA AS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER 60MM ARE EXPECTED; COMBINED WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING, RAINFALL TOTALS OF
50 - 100MM ARE POSSIBLE.
RIVERA-TORRES...(WPC)
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