617
FXUS02 KWBC 300725
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
VALID 12Z MON FEB 2 2026 - 12Z FRI FEB 6 2026
***PERSISTENT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BRINGS SNOW AND WIND TO THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND MOVES WELL
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS REMAINING FROM THE
COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC TO MAINE. THE ARCTIC COLD WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL
STAYING POWER IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM, ALTHOUGH SOME GRADUAL
ABATEMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
THE EAST COAST WITH ROUNDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW, AND INCREASING
RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS RELATIVELY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WITH A GENERAL DETERMINISTIC BLEND
SERVING AS A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR FRONTS AND PRESSURES. THERE
ARE SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THE GFS IS GENERALLY SLOWER WHEN
COMPARED TO THE NON-NCEP CONSENSUS, AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE QPF
AND SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH. THE GUIDANCE
IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT ON THE BUILDING WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE BY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT LESS CLEAR ON HOW A WEAK CLOSED LOW
EVOLVES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. BY FRIDAY, THE GUIDANCE CLEARLY
SHOWS AN INTENSIFYING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL TEND TO
REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION, WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE GRADUALLY
INCREASED TO ABOUT 40% BY THIS TIME.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE
EXTENDED DURATION OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S., PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THE NORTHEAST WHERE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
REMAIN AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER LIMITING DAYTIME HIGHS, EVEN
THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ABATEMENT COMPARED TO THE EXTREME
COLD THAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. THE
DURATION OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IS COMPARABLE TO DECEMBER OF
1989 FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. UNUSUALLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXTEND DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE WAKE
OF THE POWERFUL ATLANTIC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT, WITH THIS
BOUNDARY MAKING IT PAST THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA BY MONDAY
MORNING. A DAMAGING HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. MANY DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
ARCTIC BLAST.
OUT WEST, THE THEME OF MILD CONDITIONS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN
OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WORSENING IN MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON WHERE ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD EXIST
FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE, A CORRIDOR OF LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY, AND
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN. BY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE MID-SOUTH,
WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AREAS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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