912
FXUS01 KWBC 300815
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
VALID 12Z FRI JAN 30 2026 - 12Z SUN FEB 01 2026
...A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COASTAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BRING
HEAVY SNOW, HIGH WINDS, AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR THE CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND...
...THE SAME WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL
FLOODING POTENTIALS UP AND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LATER IN
THE WEEKEND...
...AN INTENSE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM WILL
SEND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA BY
SUNDAY MORNING...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH LATE JANUARY IS NOW BEING UNLEASHED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS
FORECAST TO DIVE UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE EXITING THE COAST. AS THE CORE OF THE
EXTREMELY COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE STILL VERY WARM GULF STREAM, THE
POTENTIAL ENERGY UNLEASHED WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
COASTAL CYCLONE THAT COULD INTENSIFY EXPLOSIVELY JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATER THIS WEEKEND. A PATCH OF SNOW AHEAD OF
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC IS MOVING INTO KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS
PATCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY WHILE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO FORM
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD SEE THE
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING MOST RAPIDLY WHILE EXPANDING IN SIZE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS,
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY IS THE TIME FRAME WHEN
THE MOST INTENSE WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW, EVEN OUT TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A WHILE AS THE INTENSE CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT TO SEA SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE AND THE RAPID EXPANSION OF ITS
SIZE WILL BRING HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIALS RAPIDLY
UP AND DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY EVENING WHEN HIGH
WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH TIDES COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING AND DAMAGING WAVES.
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN IN THE
COASTAL REGIONS, AND SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS INTRUDING INTO THE REGION WILL AID IN
GENERATING VARIOUS FRONTAL SYSTEMS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE COAST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE
CONTENT, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW, HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND THE COASTAL REGIONS OF OREGON. FARTHER DOWNWIND, IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION, THE HIGHER ELEVATION REGIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW, BRINGING
SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF IDAHO, MONTANA, AND
WYOMING. MEANWHILE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BRING SNOWFALL TO THE
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY SATURDAY, AN
ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS AS A WINTRY MIX OR RAIN LATER
THAT DAY. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN MILDER
THAN NORMAL WHICH IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE FRIGID CONDITIONS
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD.
IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, AN INTENSE ARCTIC BLAST IS SET TO
SURGE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, REACHING THE GULF COAST BY
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE INTENSE
EAST COAST CYCLONE. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WITH THE FORMATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WINTER STORM,
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS,
INCLUDING SUB-ZERO VALUES, OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH FLORIDA
BY SUNDAY MORNING. CONTINUE TO COVER UP IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE,
ENSURE THAT PETS AND ANIMALS HAVE PROTECTION FROM THE COLD, AND
CONTINUE TO TAKE STEPS TO PREVENT FROZEN PIPES.
KONG/BLANCO-ALCALA
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